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Mesoscale Discussion 181
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 PM CST MON MAR 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 080541Z - 080745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE BY 08Z.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED NEAR MIDLAND AS
   DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. INCREASING ASCENT IS
   EVIDENT IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
   OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHWEST TX.
   INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IS ALSO NOTED ON REGION
   88-D VWP/S. AS THE SURFACE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED WESTWARD ACROSS
   WEST TX...DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN DRAMATICALLY INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW
   60S F. AS A RESULT...MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG HAVE
   OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MCD AREA. STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT AND
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 DEG C/KM SAMPLED BY 00Z
   REGIONAL RAOBS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND COUPLED WITH
   FAST STORM MOTION...COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE
   BY 08Z.

   ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 03/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29740246 30980284 31730267 32250243 32830191 33020157
               33080135 33160084 33110031 32989997 32649957 32229940
               30349949 29859963 29420012 29130069 29440106 29620139
               29740153 29760205 29740246 

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Page last modified: March 08, 2016
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