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Mesoscale Discussion 182
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 080936Z - 081100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL
   INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY
   BE NECESSARY BY 10-11Z.

   DISCUSSION...TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
   AS OF 0930Z...ONE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN LBB-MAF...AND THE OTHER W
   OF A LINE FROM DYS-JCT. SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THESE CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED AS BROAD ASCENT CONTINUES EAST OF A DIGGING
   UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO. WHILE MID-UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...LIKELY IN
   THE FORM OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. 

   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
   WILL SUPPORT A HAIL RISK WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...THOUGH A
   GENERALLY LINEAR/LEWP CONVECTIVE MODE WILL MITIGATE THE HAIL RISK TO
   SOME EXTENT. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
   WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOMEWHAT GREATER THETA-E AIRMASS ACROSS
   WRN N TX WHERE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS LESS PRONOUNCED. SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THESE RISKS IS POSSIBLE BY
   10-11Z...IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED
   SEVERE RISK.

   ..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 03/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33480085 33860083 34240064 34719999 34919945 34909886
               34699831 34299795 33819807 33519813 33479888 33450031
               33480085 

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Page last modified: March 08, 2016
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