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Mesoscale Discussion 182
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IA / SERN NEB / N-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15...

   VALID 020436Z - 020530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 15 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
   EXPIRE BY 0600Z.  THE STRONG WIND GUST RISK IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   LOCALIZED AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FURTHER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS PROGRESSING
   ESEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY WITH A LEADING GUST FRONT ROUGHLY
   5-20 MI DISPLACED AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.  SURFACE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPS HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER SWRN IA TO
   NEAR 70 DEG F OVER N-CNTRL KS.  AS A RESULT...INCREASING MLCINH DUE
   TO A COOLING/DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEND TO LESSEN THE RISK
   FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH TIME. 
   NONETHELESS...REAR INFLOW JETS ACCOMPANYING SMALL-SCALE BOWING
   SEGMENTS NEAR THE IA/NEB BORDER OVER THE NEXT HOUR MAY FACILITATE
   STRONG HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF STRONG DMGG
   WIND GUSTS.

   ..SMITH.. 04/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40029811 40609635 41169604 41479518 40999497 40359511
               39989573 39339771 39629824 40029811 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2015
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