MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA...NRN FL AND ERN SC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 44...
   
   VALID 011117Z - 011315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 44 CONTINUES.
   
   MULTIPLE BANDS OF STG-SVR TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   MORNING.  PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN NUMBER FROM CSTL
   SERN GA SWD INTO LEVY COUNTY FL AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH
   THE APCHG STRONG PV-ANOMALY TRANSLATES EWD.  NUMBER OF STORMS AND
   INCREASING LINEAR FORCING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A MIXED-MODE OF
   DISCRETE AND LINEAR FEATURES.  THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE
   CASE AS THE STRONGER FORCING TRANSLATES TOWARD SC THROUGH
   MID-MORNING.  WHILE JAX VWP DERIVED 0-1KM SRH HAD BEEN DECREASING
   EARLIER THIS MORNING...PRESSURE FALLS OVER CSTL SERN GA AND
   INTENSIFYING SFC LOW HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STRENGTHENING SLY COMPONENT
   TO THE SFC WINDS...BOOSTING 0-1KM SRH ABOVE 250 M2/S2 RECENTLY.  ANY
   DISCRETE STORM THAT FORMS AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE WILL POSE A
   TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH DMGG WINDS/HAIL. THE SVR THREAT WILL
   INCREASE ACROSS THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA BETWEEN 12-1230Z.
   
   MEANWHILE...FARTHER N...TSTMS HAVE BLOSSOMED ALONG THE PRIMARY CDFNT
   FROM SCNTRL GA NEWD INTO THE SAV RVR VLY S OF KAGS.  THESE TSTMS MAY
   BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PER RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE STORMS
   NEAR THE WEDGE FRONT ACROSS ECNTRL GA/CNTRL SC.  WIND PROFILES ARE
   COMPARATIVELY MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL ACROSS THIS REGION AND SPLITTING
   MINI-SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  CONTINUED BACKING OF THE FLOW
   DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW AND MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING SHOULD
   BEGIN TO FORCE MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODES ALONG THE CDFNT WITH
   TIME.  HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
   
   ..RACY.. 03/01/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   32998224 33737948 32647893 29408072 29328396 31828223
               32998224