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Mesoscale Discussion 183
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/N TX...EXTREME SRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 151813Z - 152015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTN. SCTD SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A
   WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD/DIFFUSE AREA OF
   LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX WITH MODEST SE/SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTENING/GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS DISCUSSION
   AREA. TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST TWO
   HOURS AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS WRN PORTIONS OF
   N TX. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIP WILL LIMIT OVERALL
   DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER EXPECT A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES OF
   1000 - 1250 J/KG TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTN AS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
   COMBINES WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER/LOCALLY GREATER HEATING.

   LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER
   LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES CENTRAL/NRN TX AND SRN OK...WITH DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM
   KFWS REFLECTS A STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL
   FOR SPLITTING STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH
   DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEATING/STEEPER
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS/SRH ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LIMITING
   THE OVERALL THREAT.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE
   BY 20Z.

   ..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 03/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   34399810 34389646 34029607 33609581 33099583 32419575
               31859584 31389636 31299695 31209753 31149811 31179862
               31359895 31629936 32069947 33009943 33549909 34399810 

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Page last modified: March 15, 2014
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