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Mesoscale Discussion 183
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KANSAS...INTO PARTS OF W CNTRL/NRN MISSOURI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 020637Z - 020830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN
   AREA BY 09-10Z.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
   OF A LARGER SCALE LINE/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING
   ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...IS BEING MAINTAINED BY STRONG WARM
   ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET. IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD BE ENHANCED A BIT FURTHER THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID/UPPER IMPULSE NOW
   PROGRESSING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  TOWARD 09-10Z..AS
   THIS LATTER FORCING BEGINS TO WEAKEN/SPREAD NORTH OF THE
   REGION...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO SLACKEN... ACTIVITY SEEMS
   LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS INTO THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN
   AREA...AND EAST OF ST. JOSEPH...TOWARD CHILLICOTHE MO...ON THE
   NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAPPING.  UNTIL THEN...EVEN
   THOUGH CONVECTION IS BASED ABOVE/TO THE COOL SIDE OF EASTWARD
   ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SURFACE
   GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39179704 39629621 39909545 40259435 40399351 40219267
               39279314 38859433 38699532 38579665 38819713 39179704 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2015
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