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Mesoscale Discussion 184
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KANSAS INTO PARTS OF SWRN THRU CNTRL MISSOURI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 021022Z - 021215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL...MOSTLY MARGINAL...SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
   STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERSPREADING THE REGION THROUGH
   13-16Z.  LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE
   QUESTION.

   DISCUSSION...THE MOST RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   AND INTENSITY...WEST OF CHANUTE...APPEARS LARGELY TIED TO COINCIDING
   WEAKENING INHIBITION...ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WITH A NARROW
   PLUME OF INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
   JET.  POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD
   PERSIST AS FORCING PROGRESSES THROUGH A RESIDUAL PLUME OF VERY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL
   MISSOURI BETWEEN NOW AND 13-16Z.  OCCASIONAL...MOSTLY
   MARGINAL...SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT LOCALIZED
   STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
   QUESTION...PERHAPS AIDED BY DOWNWARD MIXING OF 40-50 KT LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.

   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38489506 39129389 39259177 38259171 36999356 37119531
               38489506 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2015
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