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Mesoscale Discussion 184
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN AND ERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 152040Z - 152315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN
   THREATS. TIMING OF ANY WW ISSUANCE IN THIS AREA IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
   WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...LOW 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE ERN
   TX WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN
   LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING RAIN
   AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. MORNING
   RAOB DATA FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TX AND LAKE CHARLES LA SHOWED A
   PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 850-700 MB...AND INDEED BASED
   ON MOTION AND CHARACTER OF THE CONVECTION THUS FAR...ACTIVITY DOES
   NOT APPEAR TO BE BASED WITHIN THE SFC LAYER. THE STRONGER FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT...BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NWRN TX WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SERN TX...BUT
   WILL AFFECT ECNTRL THROUGH NERN TX THIS EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
   SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE BANDS MAY IN TIME
   DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NWD. MEANWHILE...THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO
   STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 50 KT ACROSS ERN TX WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOUSTON VWP HAS
   SHOWN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN 0-1 KM SHEAR DURING THE PAST COUPLE
   HOURS. WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN A LIMITING
   FACTOR...INCREASING HODOGRAPH SIZE COINCIDENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   DEEPENING CONVECTION POSES A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONES TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING.

   ..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 03/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   30499601 31249698 32459624 33139519 32819463 31949461
               30769476 30499601 

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Page last modified: March 15, 2014
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