MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0616 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN MO...AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AREAS OF
   KS...NE...IA...AND IL
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 211216Z - 211715Z
   
   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1-2 INCHES
   PER HOUR WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM NE KS TO NW/N CENTRAL MO THROUGH
   15-18Z.  JUST SE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND...MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
   SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED
   CONVECTION.
   
   DISCUSSION...STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DRIVING AN
   EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT HAS BEEN SPREADING STEADILY NEWD
   THIS MORNING...PERHAPS A 1-2 HOURS FASTER THAN NAM/SREF AND HIGH-RES
   DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR.  A WARM NOSE IN THE 850-700
   MB LAYER /SAMPLED BY THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A MIX
   OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SE KS INTO SW MO...AND THIS MIXED
   PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO CENTRAL MO THIS
   MORNING.  FARTHER NW...PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW /PER THE 12Z TOP
   SOUNDING/.  A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
   NEWD ACROSS NE KS/NW MO THROUGH MID MORNING...REACHING N CENTRAL/NE
   MO BY LATE MORNING.  THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY INCLUDE THE
   KANSAS CITY METRO AREA BY 13-15Z...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD
   APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR.  THOUGH THE THERMAL STRATIFICATION IS
   NOT NECESSARILY IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...PRECIPITATION RATES
   WILL BE ENHANCED BY WEAK UPRIGHT CAPE IN THE MIDLEVELS.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 02/21/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   LAT...LON   38079402 38649513 39199596 39649640 40089634 40269629
               40629569 40749489 40699264 40449173 39769098 38999079
               38299096 38069165 38079402