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Mesoscale Discussion 186
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...FAR NWRN GA...PARTS OF WRN/MIDDLE
   TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 021857Z - 022000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MS/AL/GA INTO
   TN. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION OVER NERN MS
   AND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. MODERATELY STRONG AND GRADUALLY
   VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT ARE YIELDING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF
   25-35 KT...MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LATEST RADAR TRENDS REFLECT THIS...WITH A
   GENERALLY DISORGANIZED CHARACTER TO ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS THE
   AREA...AND ONLY WEAKLY CONFLUENT WINDS AT THE SFC.
   HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG
   OF MLCAPE/ HAS OCCURRED TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
   AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CORES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
   BOTH THE MAGNITUDE AND LOW SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THESE THREATS SHOULD
   REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 04/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   35308512 34548503 33598557 33168641 33458822 34188896
               35358859 35868825 36198656 35308512 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2015
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