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Mesoscale Discussion 186
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0951 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL INTO SE TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 160251Z - 160415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED IN THE NEAR
   TERM...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION TRENDS
   SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
   MONITORED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA LATE THIS
   EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...STABILIZATION OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE OCCURRED
   WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  AND
   STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE TEXAS SOUTH
   PLAINS...CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN INCREASING STABLE
   LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  THIS SEEMS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO GENERAL
   WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.

   THE STRONGER LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THE FAR SOUTHERN
   FLANK OF THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A BROAD LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
   EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT.  AS IT DOES...IT MAY BEGIN
   TO INGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE RETURN FLOW
   OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD SUPPORT REINVIGORATION OF
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER AND
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATER TONIGHT.

   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE IN A
   CORRIDOR EAST/SOUTHEAST OF TEMPLE...TOWARD LUFKIN AREA...PERHAPS
   NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO...THROUGH THE 05-06Z TIME
   FRAME.  HOWEVER...IT CURRENTLY SEEMS LOW ENOUGH THAT A NEW SEVERE
   WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THE NEAR TERM.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 03/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31529730 31789682 31609564 31199447 30379538 31029712
               31529730 

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Page last modified: March 16, 2014
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