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Mesoscale Discussion 186
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1046 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...WESTERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081646Z - 081815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST TX...IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
   SHEAR.  ORGANIZATION INTO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT IMMINENT...BUT AREA
   IS BEING MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
   HOU...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AT 35-40 KT.  LOCAL VAD PROFILES AT
   HGX/LCH/POE/SHV ALL SHOW SIGNIFICANT VEERING/INCREASING WINDS WITH
   HEIGHT...REPRESENTATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT.
    THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED BLOSSOMING OF CONVECTION
   ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  INSTABILITY IS WEAK
   BUT SUFFICIENT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MUCAPE VALUES OF
   500-1000 J/KG.  VAD HODOGRAPHS SHOW FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
   LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT CONSENSUS OF
   CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DISORGANIZED.
    GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT... CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..HART/GOSS.. 03/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   29999435 30079572 30759602 31929559 32109396 30719356
               29999435 

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Page last modified: March 08, 2016
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