MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0722 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SE TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 211322Z - 211445Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
   INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND A WATCH COULD
   BECOME NECESSARY BY MID MORNING.
   
   DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD WITH THE
   SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SE TX...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
   LOW JUST SW OF ACT.  A SPECIAL 12Z SOUNDING FROM CLL SHOWED BOUNDARY
   LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE...RESULTING IN MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION.  OTHER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS FARTHER S SHOWED A MUCH
   WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND STRONGER CAP...THOUGH THE CLL
   SOUNDING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE FWD SOUNDING ABOVE 850 MB. 
   THUS...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
   SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...WHICH COULD BE AIDED BY A SUBTLE APPARENT SPEED MAX OVER
   S CENTRAL TX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  IF STORMS CAN MOVE EWD ALONG
   THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
   TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  STILL...THE PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE THE
   DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S INTO THE WARM SECTOR...SINCE STORMS
   FORMING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE
   COOLER/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER NE.  N OF THE WARM
   FRONT...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS.
   
   ..THOMPSON/GOSS.. 02/21/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   LAT...LON   30629454 30119483 30139560 30529678 30949791 31309784
               31769761 31959723 31989633 31649531 31259489 30629454