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Mesoscale Discussion 187
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN LA / A PORTION OF FAR SWRN AND SRN
   MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 160642Z - 160845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN A CONDITIONAL
   SEVERE THREAT.  A FEW STORMS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
   THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER S-CNTRL LA AND MOVING NEWD TOWARDS THE MS
   RIVER.

   DISCUSSION...06Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SLOWLY ADVANCING
   MARITIME WARM FRONT FROM 25 ENE LFK DRAPED ESEWD TO 5 MI S BTR
   THROUGH LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  S OF THE BOUNDARY...MID 60S DEWPOINTS
   WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING
   TO SLOW DESTABILIZATION.  RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS IMPLY A
   LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFYING STORMS FROM
   VERMILLION PARISH NEWD TO WEST FELICIANA PARISH.  IT IS WITHIN THE
   SRN PART OF THIS BROKEN BAND OF STORMS WHERE RECENT LIGHTNING
   STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED ALONG WITH ECHO TOPS INCREASING FROM 20
   KFT TO 30 KFT.

   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMPLIES FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
   MID-LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE NEAR THE ARKLATEX AT 0630Z WILL CONTINUE
   NEWD INTO AR DURING THE OVERNIGHT.  CONCURRENTLY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR ACCENTUATED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ TO 50 KT WILL TEND TO AID
   IN STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE STRONG MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW
   ALOFT.  THEREFORE A SLOW ALBEIT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF A SEVERAL
   STORMS IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT YIELDING A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DMGG
   WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 03/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   31188929 31239102 29969232 29869008 30648893 31188929 

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Page last modified: March 16, 2014
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