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Mesoscale Discussion 188
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...LA...SOUTHERN AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 38...

   VALID 082111Z - 082245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 38 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF INTENSE CONVECTION ARE AFFECTING
   PARTS OF EAST TX AND WESTERN LA.  DESPITE MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF A FEW
   SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
   AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
   EAST TX...WESTERN LA...AND SOUTHERN AR.  THE AIR MASS IN THIS REGION
   IS CHARACTERIZED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND MUCAPE VALUES
   OF 500-1000 J/KG.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...LOCAL VAD
   PROFILES CONFIRM STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF
   250-400 M2/S2.  CONTINUED STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT
   WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION...WITH
   OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  CAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE SEVERE
   THREAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...BEFORE
   MORE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

   ..HART.. 03/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   29109509 31759573 33129476 34059387 34369204 33229184
               31249201 29769321 29109509 

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Page last modified: March 08, 2016
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