MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...CNTRL/NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 211719Z - 212115Z
   
   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER
   HOUR WILL TRANSITION NEWD ACROSS NRN MO WHILE BEGINNING TO END
   ACROSS NERN KS AND NWRN MO. A TRANSITION ZONE WITH A MIX OF
   FZRA/PL/SN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS W-CNTRL MO AS WARM AIR ALOFT
   CONTINUES MOVING NEWD INTO THE AREA.
   
   DISCUSSION...VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF NERN MO
   WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 7 TO 11 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE KANSAS
   CITY METRO. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN
   KS AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TRACKING THE NRN
   DEMARCATION BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY PLACES IT IN THE KANSAS CITY
   METRO AROUND 1730Z. AS A RESULT...THE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS NWRN MO
   IS EXPECTED TO END WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING
   DRIZZLE AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY. 
   
   FARTHER N AND E...HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS STRONG WAA
   INFLUENCES THE REGION. ORIENTATION OF THE WAA APPEARS TO FAVOR HEAVY
   SNOWFALL...WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...ACROSS
   N-CNTRL AND NERN MO WHILE SNOWFALL RATES REMAIN LOWER ACROSS NWRN MO
   AND FAR SERN NEB. 
   
   CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
   FREEZING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO MORE MIXED
   PRECIPITATION ACROSS W-CNTRL MO. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE
   ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL MO AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION RATES IN EXCESS
   OF 0.10 INCH/HR ARE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN
   AS SNOW BUT AN INCREASING FREQUENCY OF SLEET APPEARS POSSIBLE. SOME
   FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR
   BENEATH THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL LIMIT ITS FREQUENCY.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 02/21/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   LAT...LON   38789368 38829456 38799501 39059626 39879674 40529598
               40569459 40499361 40249173 39539087 38539004 38259098
               38789368