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Mesoscale Discussion 189
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / SWRN MO / EXTREME NWRN AR / NERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 022147Z - 022315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE CAP IS WEAKENING ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OVER SERN KS AND
   STORM INITIATION IS PROBABLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AGITATED CU FIELD
   ACROSS SERN KS EWD INTO SWRN MO ALONG AND S OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
   ZONE.  A LEAD MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS MOVING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROGRESS TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR
   TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.

   STRONG HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION IS
   ACTING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   1500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE.  THE MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED
   WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT
   WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE EARLY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   BEFORE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE TOWARDS EVENING IN PARTIAL
   RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX.  LOWERING LCL/S AND
   STRONG SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
   AND AN ATTENDANT SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 04/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37039743 37519744 37719698 37879456 37719325 37099291
               36069355 36229536 37039743 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2015
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