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Mesoscale Discussion 190
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0190
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0625 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX...SRN HILL COUNTRY AND LOWER-MIDDLE
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 090025Z - 090300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PRECIP/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND ACCOMPANYING SVR POTENTIAL
   ARE FCST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY OVER THIS REGION THROUGH EVENING. 
   WHILE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MRGL/ISOLATED FOR WW NEXT 1-2
   HOURS...WW MAY BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...00Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- LEFT
   OVER FROM EARLY-DAY MCS -- FROM NEAR OCH...HLR...NRN GILLESPIE
   COUNTY...TO CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY...WHERE IT INTERSECTED DRYLINE.
    DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM THERE SSEWD BETWEEN FTN-COT...TO ERN ZAPATA
   COUNTY THEN SWD OVER MEX.  BASED ON ITS PRESENTATION IS VIS
   IMAGERY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND MAY BE
   RETREATING NWWD IN SOME LOCALES.  MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW
   EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NWRN MEX -- IS EXPECTED TO
   PROCEED SEWD OBLIQUELY TOWARD THIS REGION.  ASSOCIATED
   LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...AND BROAD/PATCHY SFC PRESSURE FALLS
   ALREADY ARE EVIDENT OVER THIS AREA.  

   EXPECT WEAK MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR W OF PRIMARY
   EVENING LLJ THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER E TX AND LA...AMIDST
   CONTINUED ISALLOBARIC FORCING.  DRYLINE SHOULD RETREAT NWWD WITH DEW
   POINTS CONTINUING TO RISE ACROSS CURRENTLY WELL-MIXED AREAS OF RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY.  TSTMS ARE BUILDING ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...W OF DRYLINE AND OVER NERN MEX FROM FTN AREA SSEWD TO ABOUT
   75 W MFE...NRN PORTION OF WHICH LIKELY WAS SAMPLED BY 00Z DRT RAOB. 
   THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS S TX AS
   DRYLINE RETREATS...BUT ALSO...STRONGER MLCINH WITH EWD EXTENT
   RELATED TO PLUME OF EML-RELATED MLCINH OVER S TX THAT WAS SAMPLED
   WELL BY 00Z CRP SOUNDING.  

   EML SHOULD BE WEAKENED SLOWLY WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL THETAE
   INCREASES AND AS MIDLEVEL UVV GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.  ACTIVITY
   CROSSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY TEMPORARILY BOOST SVR RISK WHILE
   ENCOUNTERING ASSOCIATED LIFT/VORTICITY...EITHER BECOMING ELEVATED
   AND OFFERING HAIL THREAT OR WEAKENING.  WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION WILL
   REMAIN POORLY FOCUSED WITH SPORADIC...ISOLATED RISK FOR DAMAGING
   GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN PRESENCE OF LARGE BUOYANCY -- MLCAPE
   2000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE -- AMIDST GENERALLY 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR
   MAGNITUDE.  WITH TIME...AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND AVBL MOISTURE
   EACH INCREASE...SO WILL DENSITY AND INTENSITY OF SVR THREAT.

   ..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 03/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...MAF...

   LAT...LON   26419909 26499911 26549919 26849926 26909938 27059947
               27279943 27339957 27469944 27609953 27679974 27989996
               28270028 28900063 29100066 29160078 29310084 29390096
               29460109 29520125 29620120 29600136 29710134 29790144
               29810176 30010135 30249985 30219915 28689870 27769845
               26829814 26189848 26229865 26359884 26419909 

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