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Mesoscale Discussion 191
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0720 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO AND WRN/CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 030020Z - 030145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER ERN CO OVER THE PAST
   SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEY MAY POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN KS.
   A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS
   THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO CNTRL KS.

   DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   SATELLITE LOOPS OVER THE CNTRL ROCKY MTNS WILL EJECT EWD OVER THE
   PLAINS THIS EVENING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND AN UPPER
   JET MOVING OVER THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS THROUGH 02Z. STRONG
   0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 70-90 KT WILL ENCOURAGE UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION...WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. 

   A SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER SERN CO AT 00Z IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD INTO
   NRN OK WITH TIME. A THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THIS LOW
   ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS...WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE
   SOUTH OF THE GRADIENT. AS THE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS ERN CO
   MOVES EWD INTO WRN KS...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. 

   THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR PRECLUDING A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EWD/SEWD TOWARDS CNTRL KS...SFC
   DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND THE
   PROBABILITY OF SFC BASED CONVECTION WITH AN ASSOCIATED DAMAGING
   WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE. RECENT NEAR-TERM CONVECTION
   ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...AND A WW ISSUANCE COULD
   EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

   ..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38790301 39440262 39710136 39509737 38389729 37389781
               37570026 37910203 38260287 38790301 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2015
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