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Mesoscale Discussion 191
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL / MIDDLE FL PANHANDLE / EXTREME SWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161251Z - 161415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS INITIALLY OVER SWRN AL AND MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN
   PORTION OF THE FL PANHANDLE WILL MOVE INTO SERN AL AND THE MIDDLE FL
   PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING.  THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND
   A TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS AS THE AIRMASS
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

   DISCUSSION...12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE FL
   PANHANDLE HAVE SHOWN A 2-3 DEG F RISE IN DEWPOINTS OVER THE PAST 2
   HRS WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
   MIDDLE FL PANHANDLE COAST AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S INLAND OVER THE
   INTERIOR FL PANHANDLE AND SERN AL.  DESPITE RATHER HOSTILE LAPSE
   RATES INITIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE FL PANHANDLE REGION /REF. 12Z TLH
   RAOB/...A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INFLUX OF LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND
   MODEST DIABATIC HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION
   AND THE THREAT FOR STORMS BY MID MORNING OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA.  

   AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT AL/GA WILL BE
   AIDED IN PART BY A STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME COINCIDENT WITH
   A BELT OF 50 KT SLY H85 FLOW.  STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   MORE THAN ADEQUATELY SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...MOST LIKELY IN THE
   FORM OF A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH INTERMITTENT EMBEDDED QLCS/SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURE AND CIRCULATIONS.  AN ATTENDANT...ALBEIT
   CONDITIONAL...ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS AS THE SQUALL LINE FROM THE W MOVES INTO THE AREA OR
   ADDITIONAL ISOLD STORMS DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE.  AS A
   RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CONSIDERED FOR AREAS
   DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 130.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 03/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31538611 31338527 30848485 29768494 29988556 30438636
               31538611 

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Page last modified: March 16, 2014
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