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Mesoscale Discussion 192
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0926 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/S TX.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39...

   VALID 090326Z - 090530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW AREA.  THOUGH A
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...BKN BAND OF CONVECTION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
   IS EVIDENT AS OF 03Z FROM PORTIONS HAMILTON/SAN SABA COUNTIES SSWWD
   ACROSS SRN HILL COUNTRY FROM EDWARDS-BANDERA COUNTIES...THEN SWD
   BETWEEN UVA-HDO...AND ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO MEX SW LRD.  THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIST AT SVR LEVELS VARYING LARGELY AS
   INDIVIDUAL STORMS HAVE RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED ACCESS TO MOISTURE-RICH
   INFLOW LAYER TO THEIR SE.  REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES
   ACROSS NRN FRINGES OF WW FROM SRN BURNET COUNTY ACROSS NRN GILLESPIE
   COUNTY.  PRECONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR S OF THAT BOUNDARY IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY SLOWLY INCREASING MLCINH WITH TIME...AND
   MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL FCST
   SOUNDINGS.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES SHOULD PERSIST OVER
   MOST OF WW...WITH LACK OF BOTH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIMITING HODOGRAPH SIZE.  

   NEARLY MERIDIONAL CHARACTER OF AMBIENT FLOW ALOFT AMIDST FAVORABLE
   DEEP SHEAR SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MESSY...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE BUT CELL MERGERS AND
   HEAVY-PRECIP/CLUSTERED MODES PREDOMINANT.  NET EWD SHIFT OF ENTIRE
   CONVECTIVE REGIME IS FCST BUT ONLY SLOWLY...DRIVEN BOTH BY
   COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW PRODUCTION AND ONLY SLIGHTLY OFF-SLY MEAN-WIND
   VECTORS.  ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEPARATELY OVER MEX
   WSW MFE AND SE-E OF MMMY...BUT CONVECTION GENERATED IN THAT AREA HAS
   TENDED TO WEAKEN UPON MOVING NEWD ACROSS RIO GRANDE AND INTO
   HIGH-CINH ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY 00Z BRO/CRP RAOBS. 
   ULTIMATELY...MORE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS
   FARTHER E OF WW AREA AND CLOSER TO MORE SUSTAINED/INTENSE
   MOISTURE-TRANSPORT REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ OVER MIDDLE/UPPER TX
   COAST.  THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH SEPARATE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

   ..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

   LAT...LON   25999715 25849737 26029763 26079813 26239852 26249869
               26359884 26389907 26899927 27059950 27289942 27339952
               27569950 27689972 28080002 28469970 29339947 30229946
               30949857 31179851 31389859 31809802 32039743 29519709
               28339637 27969693 27259734 26459725 25999715 

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Page last modified: March 09, 2016
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