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Mesoscale Discussion 192
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0732 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / SRN IL / SWRN IND / WRN AND CNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 030032Z - 030130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS
   A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.  A NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS PROBABLE
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AIR MASS
   DESTABILIZING IN WAKE OF EARLIER DAY STORMS WITH TEMPS IN THE
   MID-UPPER 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER SRN IL AND SERN
   MO.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY SHOW MOIST AND
   STRONGLY SHEARED LOW LEVELS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  AS
   A RESULT...EXPECTING A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.  GIVEN A FORECAST ENLARGEMENT OF THE
   HODOGRAPH THIS EVENING VIA A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...LOW-LEVEL
   STORM ROTATION AND AN ISOLD SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY
   THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS.

   FARTHER E OVER NRN AND CNTRL KY AND SRN IND...A LESS UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS AND THE ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF STORM ACTIVITY THIS
   EVENING LENDS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS.  NONETHELESS...ADEQUATE SHEAR/INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A
   FEW STRONGER STORMS POSING A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUST
   RISK.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 04/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37969099 38688850 39358530 39098476 38408463 37178580
               37069071 37609101 37969099 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2015
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