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Mesoscale Discussion 194
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 090959Z - 091230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
   MORNING...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO. TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MONITORED CLOSELY
   FOR WATCH POTENTIAL.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR
   QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS ALL OF CNTRL AND ERN TX...WITH LITTLE
   EVIDENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL TX IS NOW SURGING
   NEWD NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM NERN TX INTO NRN
   LA.

   WIND PROFILES OVER ERN TX CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT STRONG HODOGRAPH
   CURVATURE WITH EFFECTIVE SRH ON THE ORDER OF 200-300 M2/S2 S OF THE
   FRONT. LATEST HGX VWP SHOWS IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 CURRENTLY.

   ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CELLS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NWD OUT OF THE VCT
   AREA...BUT HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF HAIL...SEVERE WINDS OR ROTATION AS
   OF 10Z. 

   THE ENTIRE AREA IS EXPECTED TO OVERTURN WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM CLUSTER NOW OVER ROBERTSON COUNTY
   TX NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM MAY SEE A
   LOCALIZED THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
   THE STORMS NOW WEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA EVENTUALLY ACQUIRE SOME
   ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS AS WELL. 

   GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE...ANY INCREASE IN STORM
   TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS COULD WARRANT A WATCH.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 03/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31189663 31829601 32169454 31949409 31279370 30709378
               29779446 29429573 29559640 30259674 31189663 

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Page last modified: March 09, 2016
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