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Mesoscale Discussion 196
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1007 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091607Z - 091830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
   INTENSITY INCREASE FROM SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA. A FEW TORNADOES AND
   ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECENT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS DO NOT SUGGEST AN IMMEDIATE NEED FOR A WW...BUT WW
   ISSUANCE MIGHT BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 10 AM CST A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
   SERN TX TO CNTRL AND NERN LA. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...A VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE WITH NEAR-SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F
   SUPPORTING 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
   RELATIVELY STABLE INDICATING THE ONGOING STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED. STRONG 50 KT SLY LLJ WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION
   TODAY...SUPPORTING LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS...WHILE SHEAR THROUGH A
   DEEP LAYER REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND WARM
   ADVECTION OVER SERN TX AND SWRN LA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL
   DELAY/LIMIT BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT A
   SLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED...AND STORM UPDRAFTS SHOULD
   EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE SFC LAYER SUPPORTING AT LEAST A
   MODEST THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

   ..DIAL/GOSS.. 03/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29789361 29489456 29289494 29789536 30449478 31259384
               31759279 31689217 31149222 30139293 29789361 

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Page last modified: March 09, 2016
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