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Mesoscale Discussion 197
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF FAR SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...AND FAR WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19...

   VALID 030839Z - 030945Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS
   THE SRN EXTENT OF WW 19 THROUGH 09-10Z...WITH AN EPISODIC STRONGER
   STORM NOT BEING RULED OUT ACROSS FAR SRN IL INTO ADJACENT WRN KY. 
   HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A NEW WW FARTHER EWD
   ACROSS WRN KY.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0830Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
   RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED CORRIDOR OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM WRN WV
   THROUGH THE NRN HALF OF KY/ADJACENT SRN IND TO FAR SRN IL AND SERN
   MO.  ASIDE FROM THE STORMS IN SERN MO...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
   DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTH OF A COMPOSITE SWD-MOVING AND GENERALLY E-W
   ORIENTED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED
   MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ EXTENDED EWD
   INTO THE SERN CORNER OF WW #19 WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 45-50
   KT.  THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORM CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT ACROSS SERN EXTENT OF THIS WATCH...THOUGH AS THE
   ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO STABILIZE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   DIMINISH AS WELL.

   ..PETERS.. 04/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...

   LAT...LON   36778892 36878955 36918967 37108988 37318978 37538928
               37828853 37938802 37948790 37478802 36848856 36778892 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2015
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