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Mesoscale Discussion 197
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 32...

   VALID 171902Z - 172000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 32 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   TORNADO WATCH.  HOWEVER...STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE AND
   MAY REMAIN OVER THE ERN GULF FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SW-NE ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES ITS
   SLOW EWD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE ERN GULF BASIN WITH NERN LINE
   SEGMENT WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS INLAND.  WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE
   TRANSLATING NEWD ALONG THE LINE AT FAIRLY QUICK SPEEDS...THE OVERALL
   EWD MOVEMENT IS ROUGHLY 15KT.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
   STRONGEST/DEEPEST ASCENT LAGS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION AND SHOULD NOT
   APPROACH THE PENINSULA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

   BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE PRECIP
   SHIELD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.  RESULTANT LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED WITH SFC-3KM VALUES GREATER THAN 8 C/KM. 
   EVEN SO THE ONLY MEANINGFUL BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD IS ACROSS THE
   SERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND IT/S NOT APPARENT DISCRETE UPDRAFTS
   WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE.

   OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST STRONGEST CONVECTION MAY NOT
   MOVE/DEVELOP INLAND UNTIL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..DARROW.. 03/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28148322 29268084 27437983 26328221 28148322 

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Page last modified: March 17, 2014
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