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Mesoscale Discussion 198
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0198
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0437 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/NWRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 21...

   VALID 030937Z - 031100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 21
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   WITH STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN MO THROUGH 11Z.  WHILE A STRONG
   WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
   DIMINISH.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0930Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF STORMS
   CONTINUING TO ADVANCE QUICKLY EWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SWRN MO AT
   SPEEDS OF 45-50 KT.  DESPITE THESE FAST STORM MOTIONS...THE LACK OF
   REPORTS OF STRONGER WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE SUGGESTS THIS
   ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE ELEVATED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. 
   MEANWHILE...VWP DATA PER WSR-88D/S IN CENTRAL OK TO AR INDICATED
   STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO AT LEAST 60 KT.  AS
   SUCH...LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR NRN AR AND
   SRN MO...GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING ESE-WNW FROM NERN AR TO SWRN MO.  THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT
   IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN BOTH ONGOING TSTMS AND SUPPORT NEW
   DEVELOPMENT AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED FROM FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MO INTO
   NORTH-CENTRAL AR...NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 
   THE ERN EXTENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   EXCEEDING 50 KT AND AN INFLUX OF MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO FAR SRN
   MO SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
   ELEVATED STORMS.

   ..PETERS.. 04/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36359390 36899327 37819250 38059157 37599117 37099107
               36529109 36489280 36359390 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2015
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