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Mesoscale Discussion 198
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0198
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101736Z - 101900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF
   TORNADO WILL EXIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS CNTRL MS. A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING EWD AROUND 30 KT ACROSS
   CNTRL MS...WHILE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINE MOVE MORE
   RAPIDLY NEWD AT 45 KT. SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES ARE EVIDENT
   INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND WEAK MESO-VORTICES. VWP DATA SHOW
   IMPRESSIVE DEEP-LAYER WINDS WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...BUT BUOYANCY IS VERY WEAK WITH POOR LAPSE
   RATES AND MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. UPDRAFTS ARE PROBABLY STILL SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED...BUT MAY BECOME CLOSER TO SFC BASED AS TEMPERATURES RISE
   TO THE MID 70S F. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
   WEAK BUOYANCY AND LOW POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
   REMAIN LIMITING FACTORS. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY
   APPROACH THE MS-AL BORDER WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED.

   ..DIAL/GOSS.. 03/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31329016 31759035 32419007 33019003 33398975 33348920
               32968880 32098887 31318955 31329016 

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Page last modified: March 10, 2016
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