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Mesoscale Discussion 198
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0198
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN FLORIDA INTO THE LWR KEYS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 32...

   VALID 180039Z - 180215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 32 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING REMAINS A BIT
   UNCLEAR.  WHILE IT APPEARS GENERALLY LOW IN THE NEAR
   TERM...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT COULD STILL INCREASE BY
   LATE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ALONG EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST AREAS
   NEAR/NORTH OF MELBOURNE.

   DISCUSSION...WITH CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF AN INITIAL LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ITS ASSOCIATED
   OUTFLOW LIKELY IS STALLING.  IT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL
   COASTAL AREAS TO THE NORTH OF MELBOURNE...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
   INTERIOR CENTRAL PENINSULA INTO GULF COASTAL AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST
   OF FORT MYERS.

   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSE WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASING NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
   PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND NORTHEASTERN
   GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR...INCLUDING THE INTENSIFICATION OF A SOUTHERLY 850 MB
   JET TO 50+ KT WITHIN A CORRIDOR ALONG THE STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME.  

   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WITH
   RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING CAPE ALONG THE
   AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE A CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITABLE
   WATER APPROACHING 2 INCHES APPEARS TO EXIST.  HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
   THAT THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION NEAR/NORTH OF MELBOURNE...WHERE
   CONSIDERABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW BY
   06Z...COULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL FOCUS AND FORCING FOR NEW
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING. 

   IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

   ..KERR.. 03/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   25728268 26818208 27758138 28838142 29288123 29258070
               28187996 26638085 25018107 24668197 25728268 

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Page last modified: March 18, 2014
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