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Mesoscale Discussion 199
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0199
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111142Z - 111415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ONGOING IN SE LA MAY AFFECT
   SRN MS BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS
   MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG
   THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN SEWD TO THE
   MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER WHERE SEVERAL PARTS OF THE LINES HAVE A BOWING
   STRUCTURE. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE
   OF STORMS WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO 700 J/KG RANGE. IN
   ADDITION...A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED OVER SE LA WHICH
   IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE LINE. THE NEW ORLEANS WSR-88D VWP IS
   SAMPLING THE LOW-LEVEL JET WELL WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OF 40 TO
   50 KT ABOVE 1 KM AGL. DOWNDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS
   MAY BE ABLE TO TRANSFER THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SURFACE
   RESULTING IN MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BUT SHOULD END AS
   THE CONVECTION REACHES THE COOLER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN EAST
   TO WEST BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SRN MS.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30249017 29678970 30138864 30518831 30928909 31068985
               30529020 30249017 

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Page last modified: March 11, 2016
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