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Mesoscale Discussion 199
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0199
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NERN AR INTO THE ADJACENT MO
   BOOTHEEL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 20...

   VALID 031043Z - 031245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 20 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   UNTIL ABOUT 12Z AS THE SRN EXTENT OF STORMS IN SRN MO MOVE ESEWD
   INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AR.  AFTER 12Z...STORMS COULD BECOME
   SURFACE-BASED...OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED...AS THEY REACH NERN AR.  AT
   THAT TIME...STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IN ADDITION TO A
   CONTINUED HAIL THREAT FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...A STRONG SWLY LLJ OF 50-60 KT EXTENDING FROM
   CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO AR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS AN
   INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS NRN AR AND SRN MO...SUSTAINING AN
   ONGOING COMPLEX OF TSTMS ADVANCING ESEWD ACROSS SRN MO...APPROACHING
   ADJACENT NORTH-CENTRAL AR.  RECENT CLOUD-TOP COOLING PER IR IMAGERY
   ACROSS FAR SRN MO MAY BE INDICATING THE STRONG MASS FLUX INTO THIS
   REGION WITHIN THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.  A RESIDUAL INFLUX OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST
   HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS ACTIVITY
   ADVANCES ESEWD INTO THE AR PORTION OF WW #20.  MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH
   STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO NERN AR AS
   ACTIVITY REACHES THIS REGION AFTER 12Z...INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
   DIMINISHES WITH EWD EXTENT.  THIS COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT WITH STORMS REACHING NERN AR AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE. 
   OTHERWISE...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS WANED ACROSS THIS WATCH...GIVEN
   THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION.

   ..PETERS.. 04/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   35769346 36509278 36498993 36338944 35798982 35389005
               35339120 35389241 35669302 35769346 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2015
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