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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND...NERN KY...SWRN OH...WRN WV
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 220524Z - 220930Z
SUMMARY...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OH RIVER INTO
SWRN OH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FREEZING RAIN RATES SHOULD BE ON
THE ORDER OF .05 IN PER HOUR.
DISCUSSION...WARM ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FOCUS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OH VALLEY AS LLJ BEGINS TO SHIFT ACROSS IND/KY TOWARD OH. LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIP ALOFT HAS EXPANDED INTO CNTRL OH AND WRN WV BUT
SUBSTANTIAL SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER WILL REQUIRE A FEW HOURS OF
MOISTENING BEFORE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DESCENDS TO THE SFC. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...WET BULBING SHOULD ENSURE FREEZING
RAIN IS MAINTAINED THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY APPROACH OR PERHAPS EVEN EXCEED .05 IN PER
HOUR. ICE PELLETS/SNOW MAY BRIEFLY BE NOTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OH BUT SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
ALOFT SHOULD ULTIMATELY FORCE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS
PROFILES MOISTEN.
..DARROW.. 02/22/2013
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...
LAT...LON 40198411 39398207 38338159 37818239 37968327 38858536
39988543 40198411
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