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Mesoscale Discussion 200
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0502 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN CA INCLUDING SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...ORANGE
   COUNTY TO WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112302Z - 120030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PRIMARILY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN LA COUNTY...ORANGE COUNTY TO
   WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON /UNTIL AROUND 00Z/4 PM PST/.  THESE THREATS WILL BE
   PRIMARILY LOCATED ALONG AN EASTWARD-MOVING QLCS.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2245Z... MOSAIC AND SINGLE-SITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
   A QLCS EXTENDING N-S FOR APPROXIMATELY 60-75 MILES FROM 20 SSW PMD
   TO 40 SSE LGB...AND MOVING EAST AT 25-30 KT.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
   WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL...
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-KT 500-MB JET
   EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN CA WILL FAVOR SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
   ORGANIZATION.  A FEW SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
   THE COASTAL REGIONS WITH THE STRONGEST OF 45 KT AT KSLI AT 2239Z. 
   THE THREATS FOR STRONGER WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD
   DIMINISH AS THE BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES FARTHER INLAND
   WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE STABLE.

   ..PETERS/MARSH/WEISS.. 03/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

   LAT...LON   34261854 34421792 34301751 33911696 33421666 33101693
               32941749 33141817 33751854 34261854 

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Page last modified: March 12, 2016
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