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Mesoscale Discussion 200
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN...FAR SRN
   IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 031656Z - 031830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TN. LARGE HAIL...STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS...AND A
   COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   ISSUED BEFORE 18Z.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS TRENDS SHOW MODEST
   DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY
   IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MCV. ONGOING
   TSTMS ARE GENERALLY OCCURRING ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...AND
   HAVE SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HR. PAH VWP DATA APPEARS TO
   ADEQUATELY SAMPLE WINDS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...SHOWING
   MODERATE-STRONG LOW-LEVEL S-SWLY WINDS VEERING TO WLY IN THE
   MID-LEVELS. ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN
   MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. 

   CURRENT INDICATION IS THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ALONG
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL KY INTO MIDDLE TN...WITH BOTH
   CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE FEATURING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
   GUSTS. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...DESPITE THE TENDENCY
   FOR WARM SECTOR WINDS TO VEER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE...WHICH WILL PROBABLY OCCUR
   BEFORE 18Z.

   ..ROGERS/CONIGLIO/CORFIDI.. 04/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   37938868 38248651 38528518 37508482 35748558 35648889
               35878995 36938950 37938868 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2015
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