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Mesoscale Discussion 201
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0201
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131735Z - 131830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON ACROSS
   ECNTRL/SERN OK.  LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS.  WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS SHIFTING ACROSS OK TOWARD
   WRN AR.  COMPACT CYCLONE WITH WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT HAS DEVELOPED
   OVER SCNTRL OK.  BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING ACROSS
   SCNTRL OK WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM.  CU
   FIELD IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW
   OVER PONTOTOC COUNTY AND ROBUST VERTICAL UPDRAFTS SHOULD MATURE INTO
   TSTMS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED AND LARGE
   HAIL IS LIKELY.  IN ADDITION...A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 03/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33929503 34569636 35369615 35389472 34859378 34129358
               33669401 33929503 

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Page last modified: March 13, 2016
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