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Mesoscale Discussion 201
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0201
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN...SRN IND...SRN OH

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 22...

   VALID 031923Z - 032100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 22 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 22 IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL KY AND NRN TN WHERE
   TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN
   ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 22
   BY 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING
   THROUGH SE IND AND WRN KY WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS WRN TN INTO SCNTRL KY WHERE SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
   EWD ALONG THE TN-KY STATELINE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE. MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 750 J/KG WITH 55 TO 65 KT OF 0-6 KM
   SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AS
   DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES INTO LATE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS
   AT LOUISVILLE AND NASHVILLE SHOW CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR
   IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD
   BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE CORRIDOR
   MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO
   THE NORTH OF NASHVILLE WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO
   UPPER 70S F. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXTEND NEWD INTO CNTRL KY
   WHERE INSTABILITY IS WEAKER BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT.
   WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS
   AND BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36218369 35898564 35768712 35948796 36428829 36958809
               37448749 38728581 39118439 38898296 37838257 36798289
               36218369 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2015
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