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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221316Z - 221515Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FL PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WHILE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST MAY OCCUR...A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND INLAND ACROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE NEAR A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. MUCH OF THE INCREASE IS LIKELY DUE TO
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED BY A SMALL AREA OF
PRESSURE FALLS. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 66-68 F RANGE ALONG
THE COAST...WHICH IS RELATIVELY MOIST BUT STILL ONLY RESULTS IN A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE WHEN INSERTED INTO THE 12Z TLH SOUNDING.
STILL...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CLUSTER CAPABLE
OF 30-40 KT WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.
..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 02/22/2013
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30488649 30728619 30918583 30918537 30918479 30828451
30658435 30388431 29918438 29538500 29768551 29978575
30178603 30268649 30488649
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