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Mesoscale Discussion 202
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN OK...NERN TX...SWRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 221904Z - 222100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
   SVR HAIL IS UNLIKELY...AND A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN A ZONE
   OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE A SFC-BASED COOL DOME THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON NEAR THE RED RIVER. LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS PARTIALLY
   SAMPLED BY SRX/SHV VWP DATA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPLITTING
   CELLS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   VERY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING PW ONLY AROUND 1 INCH PER
   GPS DATA...ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR SVR HAIL
   POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 03/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33939646 34359614 34489490 34209373 33669328 33379377
               33249500 33469621 33939646 

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Page last modified: March 22, 2014
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