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Mesoscale Discussion 202
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX...CNTRL/SRN AR...NE/N-CNTRL LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131801Z - 131930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING SUPERCELL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
   20-21Z. ALL SVR THREATS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL
   /GREATER THAN 2 INCHES/ AND A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. TORNADO WATCH
   LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS NE TX IS INDICATIVE OF
   INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AMIDST THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD
   OF THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
   CNTRL OK. AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
   DESTABILIZE UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED BEFORE 20Z. 

   ONCE INITIATION OCCURS...STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR LIKELY ABOVE 50 KT/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND
   1000 J PER KG/ WILL SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SVR
   THREATS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AND/OR
   STRONG TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE
   POTENTIAL SVR THREAT.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 03/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33279128 32869203 32759271 32639372 32589423 32599452
               32649475 33019482 33359459 33779417 34789249 34739158
               33979120 33279128 

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Page last modified: March 13, 2016
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