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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND ERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45...
VALID 080227Z - 080430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WW.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY -- AIDED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW -- IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME...AND NOW
EXTENDS FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD TO JUST S OF KANSAS CITY.
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TRAINING NEWD INVOF THIS FRONT...WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH TIME...WITH 50 TO 60 KT
SWLYS NOW INDICATED AROUND H8 ACROSS OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO. ALONG WITH
STORMS ONGOING INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE. GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT...HOWEVER...SHOULD REMAIN INVOF THE BOUNDARY...WHERE MOST
FAVORABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. EVENING TOPEKA KS RAOB -- JUST TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT -- INDICATES FAVORABLY STRONG FLOW /INCLUDING
85 KT SWLYS JUST BELOW H5/ AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CAPE IN EXCESS OF
900 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO WITH ANY STORM IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
FRONT.
WITH STORMS -- AND AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT -- LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS PARTS OF KS BEYOND THE SCHEDULED 08/04Z WATCH EXPIRATION...A
LOCAL EXTENSION OF THIS WATCH -- OR WW RE-ISSUANCE -- MAY BE
REQUIRED.
..GOSS.. 03/08/2009
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36589894 36669959 38529776 39459514 37899535 36589894
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