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Mesoscale Discussion 202
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MS...SRN TN...ERN AND SRN AR...NE LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 032057Z - 032230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM CNTRL MS NEWD
   ACROSS NW AL INTO SRN TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER SEVERE
   STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN ERN AND SRN AR. ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
   ACROSS WRN TN AND ERN AR WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
   OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F. AN AXIS OF
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT IN THE SFC WIND FIELD FROM NEAR
   JACKSON MS NEWD ACROSS NW AL WHERE CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE
   LAST HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
   NE AR AND DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT
   FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PARTIAL CLEARING
   ON SATELLITE AND SFC HEATING SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR
   1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT...EVIDENT
   ON THE JACKSON MS AND MEMPHIS TN WSR-88D VWPS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE AND
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD
   BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
   AL WHERE THE HUNTSVILLE AL WSR-88D VWP SHOWS A CURVED HODOGRAPH.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   35448956 34879068 33839239 33099290 32429251 32129103
               31998978 32858806 33578709 33928658 34308625 34748619
               35178639 35438708 35488793 35448956 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2015
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