MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0716 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 221316Z - 221515Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FL PANHANDLE
   THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WHILE AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST MAY OCCUR...A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
   
   DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS
   THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND INLAND ACROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE NEAR A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. MUCH OF THE INCREASE IS LIKELY DUE TO
   WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED BY A SMALL AREA OF
   PRESSURE FALLS. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 66-68 F RANGE ALONG
   THE COAST...WHICH IS RELATIVELY MOIST BUT STILL ONLY RESULTS IN A
   FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE WHEN INSERTED INTO THE 12Z TLH SOUNDING.
   
   STILL...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL
   REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CLUSTER CAPABLE
   OF 30-40 KT WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.
   
   ..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 02/22/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   30488649 30728619 30918583 30918537 30918479 30828451
               30658435 30388431 29918438 29538500 29768551 29978575
               30178603 30268649 30488649