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Mesoscale Discussion 203
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 222043Z - 222245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SVR HAIL MAY DEVELOP OVER
   PARTS OF CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD/ESEWD TOWARD SE TX
   INTO EARLY EVENING. THE COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
   LIMITED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...BREAKS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE SUPPORTING 0-3-KM LAPSE
   RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM S OF WACO TO NRN PARTS OF THE HILL
   COUNTRY...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
   80S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND NEGLIGIBLE MLCINH. MEANWHILE...VIS
   IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CU FIELD BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED
   ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 35 NNW TYR TO 10 NW ACT
   TO 30 SE JCT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO...PARTICULARLY WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS
   MAXIMIZED NEAR A MODEST FRONTAL INFLECTION -- CURRENTLY ANALYZED 50
   SE BWD. EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCES AROUND 45-60 KT MAY
   CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SUSTAINED EWD/ESEWD-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH
   POSSIBLE SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
   VERY WEAK...KEEPING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MINIMAL.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 03/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31659727 31649583 31329508 30829491 30189577 30189743
               30969834 31659727 

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Page last modified: March 22, 2014
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