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Mesoscale Discussion 203
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0510 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WV INTO WRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032210Z - 032345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 23 INTO THE
   MD AREA BETWEEN 2230 AND 23Z.  AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING AS OF
   22Z OVER CNTRL INTO ERN KY WITH THIS ACTIVITY LARGELY BEING FORCED
   BY WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG A 35-40 KT SWLY LLJ.
   HOWEVER...RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AIR REMNANT FROM EARLY-DAY
   TSTMS HAVE LIMITED AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. 
   THUS...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG WLY DEEP-LAYER WIND
   FIELD...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW. 
   NONETHELESS...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY BRIEFLY
   ENHANCE TSTM VIGOR WITH A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE AND/OR LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ..MEAD.. 04/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...ILN...

   LAT...LON   38498305 38928249 39128136 38527984 37087989 36748019
               36638074 36698129 36818172 37068190 37538173 38498305 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2015
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