MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LA TO SWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 221928Z - 222030Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH ELEVATED
   TSTMS...BUT MOST HAIL SHOULD REMAIN SMALL AND THE THREAT MAY ONLY
   PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS.
   
   DISCUSSION...SW/NE-ORIENTED CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS STRENGTHENED
   IN THE PAST HOUR WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
   LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX BIG BEND. THIS
   ACTIVITY APPEARED TO BE REASONABLY WELL-MODELED BY THE 12Z WRF-NSSL
   SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE IS THIN/MEAGER...AROUND 250
   J/KG...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLYS THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER
   ALONG WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR HAS SUPPORTED HAIL PRODUCTION
   /REPORTED UP TO NICKEL SIZE THUS FAR/. AS COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS
   LIKELY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON...CELL MERGERS AMIDST WEAK BUOYANCY
   SHOULD MITIGATE SUSTAINABILITY OF UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 02/22/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   31679258 32248982 32298751 32068707 31788706 31438723
               31108786 30858923 30809134 30849239 31169283 31679258