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Mesoscale Discussion 204
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0435 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL LA/SOUTHERN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 230935Z - 231100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
   EAST-CENTRAL LA AND SOUTHERN MS.

   DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER...A
   PRECEDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
   LA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED NEAR/NORTH OF
   THIS FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT...WITH AID OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND
   A POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE. IN PARTICULAR...CONVECTION
   IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MS /NEAR I-49 AND THE
   ALEXANDRIA AREA AS OF 0915Z/ HAS GRADUALLY GROWN UPSCALE OVER THE
   PAST FEW HOURS...WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION LEADING TO A GRADUAL
   ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED WITH SOME BOWING ELEMENTS NOW MOVING
   AT 45 KT. WHILE A RELATIVELY SHALLOW STABLE LAYER EXISTS...EXISTING
   ORGANIZATION OF THE LINE AND ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION MAY ACCOUNT FOR
   SOME WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL REGARDLESS. AS LINE-PRECEDING STORMS
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE...A MARGINAL HAIL RISK WILL ALSO EXIST GIVEN
   WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS
   CONDUCIVE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/SPLITTING MESOCYCLONES.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 03/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31119286 31609245 32248931 31948836 30858882 30599180
               31119286 

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Page last modified: March 23, 2014
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