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Mesoscale Discussion 204
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0535 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK/NW AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 41...

   VALID 132235Z - 140000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 41 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SOME SEVERE HAIL RISK REMAINS IN AND NORTH OF WW 41...BUT
   A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2230 UTC...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS
   NERN OK INTO NW AR...THOUGH STORMS ARE BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED WITH
   TIME AND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUBSEVERE OVER THE LAST HOUR. MIDLEVEL
   FLOW IS WEAKENING AS A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE
   REGION...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND THE OVERALL
   SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS/STEEP LAPSE RATES
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGEST CELLS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY
   BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
   THERE WILL BE A NEED TO EXTEND WW 41 BEYOND ITS 00Z EXPIRATION TIME.

   ..DEAN.. 03/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35539380 35119435 34669471 35229511 35389539 35509560
               35499588 35609624 35759632 36139618 36519583 36439500
               36359435 36109394 35889384 35539380 

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