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Mesoscale Discussion 205
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0558 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...AR/NORTHERN LA/EXTREME NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 42...

   VALID 132258Z - 140030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 42 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A RECENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN AR SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE INTO THE
   EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS MOVING TO
   THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AR.  VERY LARGE HAIL HAS OCCURRED WITH A
   COUPLE OF THESE STORMS...AND THIS THREAT PERSISTS INTO CENTRAL AR. 
   LOCAL WFO AREAL EXPANSION OF WW 42 MAY BE NEEDED AS STORMS MOVE
   NORTH OF THIS WATCH AROUND 00Z...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE
   OF A SEVERE THREAT.

   MEANWHILE...FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ATTENDANT SEVERE-WEATHER
   POTENTIAL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH THE CELLS FORMING ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHEAST OK INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST TX...AND
   SOUTH-CENTRAL AR.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2220Z...MOSAIC AND SINGLE-SITE RADAR IMAGERY
   INDICATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
   CENTRAL AR...WITH THE YELL COUNTY...NORTHERN GARLAND/PERRY/WESTERN
   SALINE COUNTIES STORM AND THE EASTERN SALINE/PULASKI COUNTIES STORM
   HAVING PERIODIC MRMS MESH CORES UP TO 2-2.5 INCH DIAMETER HAIL. 
   THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT
   THAT ARCS FROM WESTERN TO SOUTHERN AR...AND ATTENDANT TO A MAXIMIZED
   AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE EXIT REGION OF 500-MB AND
   300-MB JETS NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST AR.  SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE
   ANALYZED AT 22Z EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH...ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
   WARM FRONT/STORM ACTIVITY FROM NEAR LIT TO THE LA BORDER. 
   ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE IN THE SURFACE WINDS WAS APPARENT ACROSS EAST
   AND SOUTHEAST AR WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR A GREATER
   TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THE ONGOING STORMS ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

   MEANWHILE...STORMS FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN AR AND ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHEAST OK AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST AR MAY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO
   MAINTAIN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. 
   AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR PER MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY AND SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS MAY TEND TO LIMIT MOISTURE CONTENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
   UPDRAFTS.

   ..PETERS.. 03/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   33989495 34419450 34979421 35749361 35849313 35549238
               35469201 35329100 33999100 32899114 32939150 32509193
               32209404 32789410 33029445 33989495 

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