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Mesoscale Discussion 205
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0903 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231403Z - 231500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE ONGOING SMALL QLCS APPROACHING THE WEST SIDE OF MOBILE
   WILL BE ADVANCING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING
   STRONG SFC WINDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...STORM MOTION ON THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING...SMALL QLCS
   APPROACHING MOBILE IS AROUND 50 KT. REGARDLESS...RADIAL VELOCITIES
   AT THE LOWEST TILT FROM KMOB CONTINUE TO DECREASE...IMPLYING A
   DECREASE IN SFC GUSTS AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEPART HIGHER
   PRE-FRONTAL THETA-E RELEGATED TO SERN MS/SERN LA. WITH LITTLE
   LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW COMPONENT PER VWP DATA AHEAD OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...INFLOW SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AS THE
   CONVECTION SPREADS EWD REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC WINDS.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 03/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30478808 30678830 30818813 30858780 30658709 30448695
               30338735 30478808 

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Page last modified: March 23, 2014
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