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Mesoscale Discussion 206
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0510 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTH FL/FL KEYS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251010Z - 251215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK INCLUDING SOME WIND DAMAGE AND/OR
   WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO MAY EXIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FAR SOUTH FL
   COAST AND FL KEYS VICINITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT IN THE
   OFFSHORE WATERS OF FAR SOUTH FL/FL STRAITS IN VICINITY OF A ROUGHLY
   WEST-EAST BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
   ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 45-60 KT. IN THE SHORT-TERM...AN
   ONGOING SUPERCELL AS OF 10Z/6AM EDT IN FLORIDA BAY MAY CONTINUE TO
   GRAZE THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA WHILE OTHERWISE
   APPROACHING PARTS OF THE UPPER KEYS. WHILE THIS SUPERCELL SHOULD
   PROGRESSIVELY ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE NEAR-SURFACE INFLOW...A
   LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO RISK MAY
   EXIST. OTHERWISE...AN EVOLVING UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE /LEADING EDGE
   ROUGHLY 70 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST AS OF 10Z/ MAY GRADUALLY APPROACH
   THE SOUTH FL KEYS/ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
   HOURS. THIS MAY ALSO POSE A LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE RISK.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 03/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   25318111 25358051 25057994 24548099 24348217 24638244
               25318111 

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Page last modified: March 25, 2014
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