MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0559 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL BIG BEND TO THE N-CNTRL FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 232359Z - 240100Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
   WITH TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   DISCUSSION...AS OF 2350Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A NE-SW ORIENTED
   BAND OF TSTMS FROM 30 SE TLH TO 20 SSE AAF WITH EMBEDDED CELL
   MOTIONS OF 240/40-45 KT.  LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO COOL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
   RAP-DERIVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   WITH SBCAPE OF 300-400 J/KG.  THIS FACTOR IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE A
   MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES ONSHORE OWING TO
   DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF RELATIVELY STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS.
   
   GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE
   CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE REMOVED IN THE UPCOMING DAY ONE
   CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/23/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   30198365 30408316 30418246 30008227 29418257 29118280
               29078311 29338350 29698369 29978369 30198365