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Mesoscale Discussion 206
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA...FAR WRN SC...FAR WRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON 

   VALID 040045Z - 040115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE
   NW MAY STAY ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND/OR LARGE HAIL REPORTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WW IS BEING
   COORDINATED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS A LINE OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM PORTIONS OF NRN AL TO SRN/ERN TN. THIS
   LINE IS GENERALLY BEING MAINTAINED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING S/E
   ACROSS THE AREA...AS IT ENCOUNTERS A TONGUE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER BL
   MOISTURE/THETA-E STRETCHING FROM CNTRL MS TO NRN AL. AS A
   RESULT...MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 250-500 J/KG EXIST ALONG THE SAME
   CORRIDOR. WHILE THESE VALUES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE ORGANIZATION
   TO THE MORE STOUT UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE LINE /E.G. THE FAYETTEVILLE CO
   TN CELL/. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE BECOMES EVEN LESS
   IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MCD AREA /E.G. THE 00Z FFC RAOB/...SUFFICIENT
   ORGANIZATION AND COLD POOL GENERATION MAY PROVIDE A THREAT FOR A FEW
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A LARGE HAIL REPORT ACROSS NRN GA.

   ..PICCA/MEAD.. 04/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34238528 34388546 34928556 35118477 34998333 34868309
               34198336 34238528 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2015
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