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Mesoscale Discussion 206
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0641 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...AR/NORTHERN LA/NORTHERN MS/WESTERN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 132341Z - 140115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF
   WW 42 FROM ACROSS FAR EASTERN AR...NORTHERN MS...AND WESTERN TN. 
   MEANWHILE...GIVEN WW 42 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z...MUCH OF THIS
   EXISTING WATCH ALSO MAY BE INCLUDED IN THE NEW TORNADO WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPACT CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS AR
   THIS EVENING WITH 60-METER 500-MB 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO
   RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ ACROSS NORTHERN MS INTO
   WESTERN TN.  THIS JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE
   MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COMPACT CLOSED
   LOW...SUPPORTING FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NORTHERN MS INTO
   WESTERN TN.  STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE COMPACT
   UPPER SYSTEM AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGIONS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL JETS
   WILL AID IN NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM AR INTO
   THE MID SOUTH.  THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AR
   AND RECENTLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO SOUTHERN AR PER TRENDS IN
   RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA.  VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES
   WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
   ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS ACROSS AR AND SPREADING INTO WESTERN TN AND
   NORTHERN MS...AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN LA.  ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN
   SEVERE-WEATHER THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING.

   ..PETERS/WEISS.. 03/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32709214 32889285 33139324 34149420 35269324 35689264
               35929163 35909037 35848941 35698879 35008885 33938937
               33308969 32699100 32709214 

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Page last modified: March 14, 2016
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