Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 207
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 207 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 140053Z - 140215Z

   CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN GRAPHIC

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
   DUE TO THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF THE THREAT...WATCH
   ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF NC OVER THE LAST
   1-2 HRS...WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION WITH
   WEAK MIDLEVEL ROTATION. WHILE FOCI FOR ASCENT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
   WELL DEFINED...A WEAK VORT MAX NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS
   MAY BE PROVIDING SOME LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A
   WEAK SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL NC MAY BE PROVIDING A
   LOW-LEVEL FOCUS. 

   WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING AND RECENT RAX
   VWP DATA SHOW SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL VEERING FOR
   STORM ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EASTERLY. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE SHEAR
   PROFILE...MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST AN
   ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE THREAT SHOULD
   DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
   STABILIZES. 

   GIVEN THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF THE THREAT...WATCH
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 03/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35627959 36087967 36377881 36517758 36447679 36137665
               35757680 35597706 35477746 35427807 35507875 35527930
               35627959 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 14, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities