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Mesoscale Discussion 207
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0817 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN LA...W-CNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 24...

   VALID 040117Z - 040315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 24
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN/ERN PORTIONS
   OF WW 24...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...TWO CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS
   THE WATCH AS OF 01Z. ONE IS LOCATED FROM MOREHOUSE PARISH LA TO
   SHARKEY CO MS...WHILE ANOTHER IS LOCATED PRIMARILY ACROSS MONTGOMERY
   AND WEBSTER COS IN MS. BOTH CLUSTERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY FEATURED
   EMBEDDED CORES WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION...INDICATIVE OF 40-45 KTS OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OVER THE REGION. WHILE MLCAPE VALUES OF
   500-1000 J/KG EXIST ACROSS THE AREA...RELATIVELY POOR MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES /E.G. AROUND 6 DEG PER C ON THE 00Z JAN RAOB/ SUGGEST
   VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS WILL BE MODEST. THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS...SUPPORTED BY DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE CONVECTIVE
   LAYER AND ANY POTENTIAL COLD POOL ORGANIZATION.

   ..PICCA.. 04/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   32479191 33719102 33718909 32439002 32479191 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2015
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