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Mesoscale Discussion 207
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF N CNTRL MINNESOTA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 271236Z - 271530Z

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
   MORNING...WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...FROM AROUND
   WATERTOWN SD BY 14-15Z...THROUGH THE BRAINERD AREA OF CENTRAL
   MINNESOTA BY 17Z.

   DISCUSSION...AS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY...A MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP
   ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM WATERTOWN SD THROUGH AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF
   BRAINERD MN.  THIS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC
   FORCING...AND ASSOCIATED INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...WITHIN WHICH RESIDE
   TEMPERATURES FAVORABLY COLD FOR LARGE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH.

   EVAPORATION OF PRECIPITATION FROM ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AND
   SATURATE A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAYER /INITIALLY WARM WITH SIZABLE
   TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS/ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
   AROUND THE WATERTOWN SD AREA.  THIS IS WHERE LOW-LEVEL COLD
   ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW CENTER IS ALREADY
   UNDERWAY...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES /INCLUDING PRECIPITABLE WATER
   CONTENT ABOVE .50 INCHES/ PROBABLY WILL BECOME  SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY
   SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH BY 14-15Z.  

   MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS FROM
   SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  BUT...AS THE
   PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE GRADUALLY MIGRATES FROM THE CENTRAL
   KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER TOWARD THE OMAHA AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...AN
   INCREASING NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT ACROSS CENTRAL
   MINNESOTA SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT COOLING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   HEAVY SNOW DURING THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME.

   ..KERR.. 03/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44789804 45709707 46759388 45979326 45189547 44479687
               44369767 44789804 

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Page last modified: March 27, 2014
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