Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 208
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 208 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO...FAR NERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 271647Z - 271915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DISCRETE STORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE
   EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT.
   ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS WILL FAVOR A RISK OF SEVERE HAIL
   AND A FEW TORNADOES PEAKING DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 992 MB CYCLONE OVER FAR
   SERN NEB WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT TO THE E/SE ACROSS NRN MO. A
   DRYLINE IS MIXING EWD INTO ERN KS WITH A COLD FRONT LAGGING JUST
   BEHIND AT PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL KS. A CONFINED PLUME OF 50-55 DEG F
   SURFACE DEW POINTS EXISTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN ERN KS AND WILL
   SHIFT EWD INTO WRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. CU DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED
   ALONG THE DRYLINE W OF EMP...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
   DESTABILIZATION INCREASES. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TIED TO
   THE DRYLINE OWING TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS/INHIBITION DOWNSTREAM IN
   MO ATTM. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
   E/NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY. DESPITE MLCAPE REMAINING WEAK AT
   AOB 1000 J/KG...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER MODIFIED RAP/NAM
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR PER
   TWX/EAX VWP DATA SHOULD FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING SEVERE
   HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38099617 39179597 39859591 40199529 40239471 40079389
               39729347 39069325 36949404 36339471 36359557 36779625
               37309638 38099617 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 27, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities