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Mesoscale Discussion 209
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0949 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/NORTHEAST LA/SOUTHWEST TN/WEST-CENTRAL
   TO NORTHWEST MS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 43...

   VALID 140249Z - 140445Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 43 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF AR INTO NORTHEAST
   LA...WITH STORMS ADVANCING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND
   NORTHWEST MS AND WESTERN TN DURING THE LATE EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...AT 02Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND AVAILABLE VWP DATA
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH SHOWED THE SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET HAD STRENGTHENED TO 45-60 KT FROM SOUTHERN LA...
   NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MS TO SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR.  THIS LLJ
   BENEATH A 50-55-KT WESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO EASTERN AR
   AND NORTHERN MS IS MAINTAINING FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED...ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS.  THESE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS AND 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF
   7-7.5 C/KM WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE
   EASTWARD-MOVING COMPACT CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT FURTHER STORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS IN MRMS 7- AND 9-KM CAPPI DATA
   SUGGEST GRADUAL WEAKENING UPDRAFTS/STORMS THAT ARE MOVING INTO
   WESTERN TN...WHILE THE STRONGEST CELLS WERE LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST AR.
   THE LATTER STORMS WERE LOCATED CLOSER TO RELATIVELY STRONGER
   INSTABILITY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSING A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
   STORMS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO WESTERN MS. 

   MEANWHILE...COUNTIES AND PARISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF WW 43
   CAN CONTINUE TO BE CANCELLED AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES
   AWAY FROM THESE COUNTIES/PARISHES INTO EASTERN AR/NORTHERN MS AND
   WESTERN TN.

   ..PETERS.. 03/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32299237 33349193 34169213 34539212 35029166 35639093
               35898978 35828923 35608905 34218923 33298945 33289025
               32629076 32459095 32569145 32449178 32299237 

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Page last modified: March 14, 2016
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