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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IND WRN OH THROUGH CNTRL KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 081831Z - 082030Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD TOWARD CNTRL
IND...REACHING WRN OH THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN APPROACHING
THE ERN EDGE OF WW 49 AFTER 19Z...AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SOON.
BROKEN OF LINE OF STORMS CONTAINING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS
CONTINUES EAST AT 45 TO 50 KT. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500-800 J/KG.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST ACROSS IND DUE IN
PART TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD WHICH WILL LIMIT FURTHER WARMING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STRONG
BULK SHEAR AND SIZE OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..DIAL.. 03/08/2009
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
LAT...LON 40558405 38518479 37388563 37098657 37778690 40578628
41048578 41108473 40558405
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