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Mesoscale Discussion 210
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...WRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271901Z - 272100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD
   FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AS
   INHIBITION WANES. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT...BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE
   WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

   DISCUSSION...MOST CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND CONVECTION-PARAMETRIZED
   GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK TO DEVELOP SIMULATED STORMS ACROSS
   E-CNTRL/SERN TX. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
   NOTED IN 12Z CRP RAOBS AND A SPECIAL 15Z RAOB NEAR IAH ALONG WITH
   LATE MORNING AMDAR DATA. MOST RECENT AMDAR DATA SUGGEST THE
   INVERSION IS WEAKENING AND A SPECIAL 17Z RAOB NEAR CLL INDICATES
   LITTLE INHIBITION WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION. 

   CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DEEPENING CLOUDS ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL
   STRATUS DECK SUGGEST THAT STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
   WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.
   HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF A CLUSTER CONVECTIVE MODE WITHIN AN
   ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN SHOULD TEMPER LONGEVITY OF INDIVIDUAL
   UPDRAFTS AND HAIL SIZE. EVEN WITH CONVECTION LIKELY INITIATING ABOVE
   THE SURFACE...SATURATED LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH
   NEAR-NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A
   BRIEF TORNADO.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32759339 32419296 31769253 29889313 29579389 29139519
               30079607 30929643 31969609 32609548 32879417 32759339 

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Page last modified: March 27, 2014
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