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Mesoscale Discussion 211
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO...FAR SERN KS...ERN OK

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 33...

   VALID 271950Z - 272115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 33 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN THE
   PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN WW 33 WITH SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS AND A FEW
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MONITORING FOR MORE ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT S
   OF WW 33 IN ERN OK WHERE WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...ARCING BAND OF DISCRETE TSTMS WITHIN THE CORE OF WW 33
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AND IMPINGING
   COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE BAND
   NEAR/E OF KANSAS CITY/ST JOSEPH...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL
   AND TORNADOES GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 250 M2/S2. FARTHER
   S/SW...WHERE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED ON THE CUSP OF
   MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS...MODIFIED 18Z SGF RAOB SUGGESTS
   LITTLE CIN IS PRESENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH A SLOWER
   PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE IN ERN OK...CONVERGENCE ALONG IT APPEARS
   TO BE FOSTERING AGITATED CU SW OF TULSA. DESPITE REMAINING S OF THE
   GREATER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...A LONE SUPERCELL COULD FORM WITH
   SIMILAR RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO. HOWEVER...MERGING OF THE
   COLD FRONT/DRYLINE LATER THIS EVENING MAY BE ULTIMATELY NECESSARY TO
   SUSTAIN/INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH SRN EXTENT.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36699562 37519527 38719483 39819459 40329474 40579458
               40679411 40649362 40519294 40279230 39359234 37869295
               36649354 35629422 34789510 34809634 35039664 36019613
               36699562 

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Page last modified: March 27, 2014
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