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Mesoscale Discussion 212
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1206 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE KY...WRN WV...S-CNTRL/SE OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141706Z - 141830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
   ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED SVR
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CU
   ACROSS THE REGION AS INSOLATION AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   CONTRIBUTE TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
   MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN/CNTRL KY. THIS
   AREA IS DISPLACED N OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH WEAKER DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED HERE COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S.

   DESPITE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS...GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR AND ONLY
   MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE LIKELY AT OR BELOW 1000 J PER KG/
   SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL...ALTHOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A
   WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 03/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37798139 37578193 37418244 37268316 37108406 37398419
               38028400 38478378 39508333 40398269 40788168 40358084
               39408066 38698076 38258086 37958108 37798139 

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Page last modified: March 14, 2016
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