MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE/TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS
   AND SOUTHWEST OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 250152Z - 250345Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE
   EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST OK AND THE TX
   LOW ROLLING PLAINS. SOME HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   TSTMS...ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS UNLIKELY TO BE NEEDED GIVEN THE
   ANTICIPATED MARGINALITY.
   
   DISCUSSION...UPPER JET EXIT REGION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
   OK/NORTH TX THIS EVENING IN TANDEM WITH AN EASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER
   TROUGH OVER NM. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL AID AN
   INCREASE/EXPANSION OF TSTMS WILL THIS EVENING...SUCH AS ONGOING
   TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST OK IN VICINITY OF
   WEST/SOUTHWEST-EAST/NORTHEASTWARD EXTENDING LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE.
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED A BIT LATER THIS EVENING
   /THROUGH 03Z-05Z/ FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE TX
   LOW ROLLING PLAINS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE
   TOTAL BUOYANCY IS RATHER MARGINAL WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
   CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF ONLY LOWER 40S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...A STEEP
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AS PER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM AMARILLO
   TX/NORMAN OK COULD YIELD SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
   SUB-SEVERE HAIL IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.
   
   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 02/25/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   34160080 34850065 35509955 35299878 33589906 33170004
               34160080