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Mesoscale Discussion 213
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND N-CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 070851Z - 070945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLD LARGE HAIL RISK WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE MORE
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ACROSS CNTRL AND N-CNTRL MO OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS E-CNTRL
   KS INTO SWRN MO.  RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES HAS SHOWN
   A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER W-CNTRL MO.  THE
   ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FOSTERED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE TERMINUS
   REGION OF A 45-KT LLJ OVER THE AREA.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER.  SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KT/ COUPLED WITH THE
   ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/WEAK MID-LEVEL
   ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CORES.  CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
   GENERALLY SHOW THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND N-CNTRL MO
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH IT APPROACHING THE MS RIVER TOWARDS
   12Z.  ALTHOUGH SEVERAL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A LARGE HAIL
   THREAT...THE ISOLD COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT
   WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38869319 39939454 39989428 40159224 39669169 39239162
               38959218 38869319 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2015
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