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Mesoscale Discussion 213
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0121 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NC INTO
   NORTHERN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141821Z - 141945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
   MAY OCCUR AS WELL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF
   INCREASINGLY AGITATED CUMULUS OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION OF NC INTO
   NORTHERN SC. HERE...DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
   F...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 F. AS A
   RESULT...WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED WITH MUCAPE
   VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATED SOME
   SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF RALEIGH. THIS DEVELOPMENT
   IS LIKELY DUE PARTLY TO DIURNAL PROCESSES COMBINED WITH A WEAK LEE
   TROUGH ALIGNED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME
   DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING AS OF 18Z...BUT AS FORCING FOR
   ASCENT SPREADS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. ANY
   ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OUT OF THIS CUMULUS FIELD WILL
   MAINLY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
   PLACE AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT DISCRETE CELLS. WHILE
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. 

   BY EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A HAIL THREAT INTO
   THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
   COAST. COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 03/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36677973 36487903 36247852 36157831 35817816 35367806
               35057818 34617852 34307907 34147985 34048054 34098138
               34438195 34718209 35028212 35648208 35968186 36368148
               36598106 36728055 36677973 

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Page last modified: March 14, 2016
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