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Mesoscale Discussion 214
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0525 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NC...NRN SC...EXTREME SRN VA.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 142225Z - 150030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA...PREDOMINANTLY IN FORM OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND
   SPORADIC LARGE HAIL.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PARTS OF
   CAROLINAS...DEPENDING MAINLY ON LIKELY NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
   ACROSS SWRN VA AND NRN NC...EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN MWK-MTV ESEWD
   ACROSS GREENSBORO...WAKE AND PITT COUNTIES...THEN INTERSECTING
   COMBINED OUTFLOW/SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER BEAUFORT COUNTY. 
   BAROCLINIC ZONE CORRESPONDS WELL TO SRN RIM OF EARLIER/PERSISTENT
   DAYTIME CLOUD COVER THAT SINCE HAS ERODED NEWD SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL
   REMAINS SHARPLY DEFINED IN WIND AND THERMAL FIELDS.  IT IS MOVING
   NWD ACROSS PORTIONS ORANGE/DURHAM COUNTIES...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO
   LOCALIZED ISALLOBARIC PERTURBATIONS FROM ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTM TO
   ITS N OVER DURHAM COUNTY.  HOWEVER MOST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
   QUASISTATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY SWD.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD FORM
   EFFECTIVE NRN BOUND OF SFC-BASED INFLOW PARCELS FOR CONVECTION
   MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ALONG ZONE OF ASCENT NOW EVIDENT FROM NWRN SC
   NNEWD TO NEAR BCB...THOUGH ELEVATED CELLS WITH HAIL MAY OCCUR N OF
   BOUNDARY.  ANOTHER ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTM IS MOVING EWD 30-35 KT
   ACROSS SPA REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PLUME OF DEEP ASCENT
   PRECEDING TROUGH ALOFT.  WARM SECTOR AVBL TO LATTER ACTIVITY FOR A
   FEW MORE HOURS SHOULD REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY SWLY SFC WINDS AND SFC
   DEW POINTS ONLY 50S F...BUT WITH COOLING ALOFT...YIELDING 500-1500
   J/KG MLCAPE.

   FARTHER E AND CLOSER TO ATLC COAST...SVR POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
   CONDITIONALLY...GIVEN SOME OFFSETTING FACTORS...
   1. FAVORABLE-- INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP SHEAR WITH TIME AS
   TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH APCHS.
   2. FAVORABLE -- GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ON BOTH SIDES OF
   BOUNDARY PER LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING DEW POINTS MAINLY MID-60S.
   F...AND PW 1-1.25 INCH IN GPS-BASED READINGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS.
   3. FAVORABLE -- PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   LIFT/VORTICITY.
   4. UNFAVORABLE -- LIGHT AND/OR VEERED FLOW S OF BOUNDARY IN WARM
   SECTOR...KEEPING HODOGRAPH SIZED MRGL PER AVBL VWP AND FCST
   SOUNDINGS.
   5. UNFAVORABLE -- DIABATIC EVENING COOLING AND RELATED PROGRESSIVE
   INCREASE IN STATIC STABILITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SFC UPWARD.

   ..EDWARDS/DIAL.. 03/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34888239 35198174 36178133 36648024 36617843 35907737
               35367746 34777814 34687902 34648033 34718175 34888239 

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