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Mesoscale Discussion 215
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0936 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEB AND NORTHEASTERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 150236Z - 150430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE HAIL REPORT OR TWO WILL EXIST
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.
   WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...IN
   TANDEM WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING
   FRONT...HAS YIELDED AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB
   AND NORTHERN KS THIS EVENING. THE 00Z TOP RAOB REVEALED STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS VERTICAL ACCELERATION
   IN MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST KUEX VWP DEPICTS
   VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF
   WEAK UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. ALTHOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE
   850-700MB LAYER FLOW AND RELATIVELY UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 700
   MB SUGGEST STORM SPLITTING AND OVERALL DISORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE
   MODE...ISOLATED CELLS ACQUIRING MID-LEVEL ROTATION MAY BE CAPABLE OF
   A COUPLE SEVERE HAIL REPORTS LATE THIS EVENING. INDEED...ZDR NEAR 0
   DB /COLLOCATED WITH FAIRLY HIGH CC/ WITHIN THE REFLECTIVITY CORE OF
   THE JEWELL CO KS STORM MOST LIKELY INDICATES EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF
   SMALL/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES.
   NONETHELESS...BL COOLING AND A LACK OF GREATER LOW/MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE DURATION AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE
   THREAT...AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..PICCA/DIAL.. 03/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39069749 39169873 39459917 39729910 40179894 40499861
               40609812 40669702 40419594 39909550 39399559 39119642
               39069749 

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Page last modified: March 15, 2016
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