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Mesoscale Discussion 215
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1051 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27...

   VALID 071551Z - 071645Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY NEAR-TERM RISK
   WITH A SMALL MCS JUST S OF ST LOUIS. ACCELERATION TO THE SE OF THE
   MCS APPEARS PROBABLE BY ABOUT 17Z WITH MORE OF A MIX OF ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL/WIND THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...SMALL MCS FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY MO TO MADISON COUNTY
   IL HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEARLY SHAPED OVER THE PAST HOUR. MOST
   INTENSE UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING ALONG THE WRN FLANK TOWARDS
   THE INSTABILITY AXIS CENTERED OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU/GREAT PLAINS.
   ALTHOUGH DIABATIC HEATING HAS THUS FAR BEEN SLOWED BY LIMITED
   INSOLATION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS MCS...DECREASING STRATUS
   COVERAGE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MO INTO WRN
   KY. THIS SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE COLD POOL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
   AND FOSTER ACCELERATION OF THE MCS TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS
   CORRIDOR WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE 1630Z D1 CONVECTIVE
   OUTLOOK.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38179026 38648967 38368834 38168781 37858778 37548796
               37138852 37088889 37318976 37729066 37939096 38099101
               38179026 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2015
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