MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MA...SRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40...
   
   VALID 250850Z - 251045Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...NUMEROUS STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF
   COAST...WITH HEAVY RAIN...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND AT TIMES MARGINAL
   HAIL. IT DOES NOT APPEAR A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED N OF THE WARM
   FRONT.
   
   DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
   REGION WITH SLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE WARM FRONT WAS
   LOCATED FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS EWD AND MOVING EXTREMELY SLOW
   AS OF 0845Z.
   
   LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WEAKER THAN EARLIER THIS
   EVENING WHEN LARGE HAIL WAS REPORTED...DUE TO EXPANDING RAIN SHIELD
   AND OUTFLOW. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS
   ELEVATED JUST OFF THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN AMPLE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND PERSISTENT MOIST INFLOW INTO THESE STORMS...A FEW CELLS
   COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING HELPING TO
   SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE OUTFLOW. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR
   AS WELL WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.
   
   UNLESS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INLAND...WIND
   POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY NOT BE
   NEEDED.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/25/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   30228690 29998812 29098889 29018943 29299036 29719082
               30399073 30809023 30848845 30858738 30688690 30508676
               30228690