Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 216
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 216 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX...NRN LA...SRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 281745Z - 281945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
   LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREA
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITHIN A MOIST AND
   INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER AN
   INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY IS THE COLD FRONT...RECENTLY ANALYZED FROM
   LIT SWWD TO MWL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS ANOTHER
   SURFACE BOUNDARY ARCING FROM NEAR TYR TO DEQ...LIKELY RESULTANT FROM
   CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. SEVERAL GRAVITY WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS
   THAT MOVED ACROSS MS AND AL WERE ALSO NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS
   MORNING. ALL OF THESE BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE
   ASCEND FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED MOIST
   ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM
   THE ARKLATEX EWD ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN LA.

   RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A FEW CELLS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
   ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM TYR TO DEQ. THESE CELLS ARE STRUGGLING TO
   MATURE...SUGGESTING THE ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY REMAINS HOSTILE TO
   SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. MODIFIED 12Z SHV SOUNDING REVEALS ONLY A
   MINIMAL AMOUNT OF INHIBITION REMAINS. DESPITE SOME MIXING OF THE
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTINUED HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH FOR
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. 

   12Z FWD AND SHV SOUNDINGS REPORTED 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.1 AND
   7 DEG C PER KM AND MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES MLCAPE WILL BECOME
   GREATER THAN 2000 J PER KG. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
   AROUND 40 TO 50 KT. THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...SOME
   POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT...AND DAMAGING WINDS. WIDESPREAD STORM
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR A MORE LINEAR OR CLUSTERED STORM MODE
   WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THIS TYPE OF STORM MODE IN TANDEM WITH
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT LIMITED...ALTHOUGH
   NON-ZERO.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 03/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32689158 32559213 32579358 32669447 33059478 33429479
               33889471 34229443 34439402 34639275 34429187 33979127
               33069129 32689158 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 28, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities