MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/FAR WRN OK...PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN KS...TX
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 250939Z - 251415Z
   
   SUMMARY...LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 IN/HR IS FORECAST TO
   OCCUR THIS MORNING FROM PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN KS INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED 2-3 IN/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
   NWRN OK INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HRS FROM SWRN KS
   INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL PROMOTE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
   
   DISCUSSION...AT 09Z...WV IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER
   ERN NM...WITH AN INTENSE 90 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING OVER WRN
   TX. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTENING IS OCCURRING
   OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT NWRN OK/SWRN KS WITHIN THE LEFT
   EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL
   BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS NNEWD FROM THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO CNTRL
   KS...WHICH IS FOCUSING MODERATE TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THE
   SURFACE...FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY 30 E OF LUB TO NEAR AVK
   IN NWRN OK. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS
   NWRN AND WRN OK DURING THE MORNING...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM
   RAIN TO SNOW OVER THOSE AREAS. 
   
   COMBINATION OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEPLY SATURATED
   ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST INTENSE ASCENT IS
   FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM NWRN OK TOWARD THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE...WHICH
   MAY LEAD TO SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY UP TO 2-3 IN/HR. IN ADDITION...60
   KT LOW-LEVEL NLY JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM SWRN KS INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. THIS WILL AID IN SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WIND SPEEDS NEAR 35 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH...WHICH
   WILL FAVOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/25/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   34050098 33990231 34890279 36000250 37040115 37359894
               36549846 34050098