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Mesoscale Discussion 218
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0629 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN IA THROUGH NERN MO AND WCNTRL AND
   NCNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 44...

   VALID 152329Z - 160100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 44 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM WCNTRL THROUGH
   CNTRL IL THROUGH ABOUT 0130Z...AFTER WHICH SOME SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH NERN IL.

   DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATED WITHIN ZONE OF
   ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AND NEAR SFC LOW CONTINUES
   OVER WCNTRL IL. ANOTHER ISOLATED STORM HAS DEVELOPED JUST NE OF ST
   LOUIS MO. THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THEY
   MOVE EWD THROUGH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL
   AND NCNTRL IL WHERE MLCAPE REMAINS AROUND 1500 J/KG. SOME INCREASE
   IN THE LLJ IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THIS PROCESS
   SHOULD AUGMENT 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS SIZE CONTRIBUTING TO PEAK LOW-LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND 02Z.

   ..DIAL.. 03/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41628969 41348913 40338883 39648953 39439054 40619061
               41529023 41628969 

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