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Mesoscale Discussion 218
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28...

   VALID 072034Z - 072200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER ONGOING THE SVR
   THREAT ACROSS CNTRL KY.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT STORM MOTION ESTIMATES -- 275 AT 40 KT -- TAKE
   THE CURRENT SUPERCELL MOVING ACROSS THE IND/KY BORDER OUT OF WW 28
   AROUND 21Z. DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT HAS MIXED SLIGHTLY AS
   TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NOW CURRENTLY
   IN THE LOW 60S. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS MIXING HAS RESULTED
   IN SLIGHTLY LOWER MLCAPE VALUES -- AROUND 800-1000 J/KG -- BUT THE
   ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
   LARGE HAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THIS CONTINUED
   SEVERE THREAT AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL
   MOVE OUT OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA BY 21Z...A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION
   MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS THREAT. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THE
   SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES ERN
   KY...LIKELY PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR NEW A WATCH INTO THAT AREA.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37598656 38278584 38408503 38178446 37518482 37108535
               36968597 37158669 37598656 

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