MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0907 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COASTS AND INTO SRN GA AND
   THE NRN FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 251507Z - 251730Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL POTENTIAL IS ONGOING...WHILE THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS COASTAL
   AREAS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  WW ISSUANCE WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH TIME.
   
   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LYING W-E
   ACROSS THE NRN GULF JUST S OF THE COAST...AND EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN
   FL JUST N OF OCF /OCALA/.  THE AIRMASS TO THE S OF THE FRONT IS
   COMPRISED OF A TROPICAL/MOIST SURFACE-BASED LAYER BENEATH MODERATE
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COOL/RAIN-REINFORCED STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER EXISTS N OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION.
   
   WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM STILL WELL TO THE W OVER TX...NWD PROGRESSION
   OF THE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST REGION IS FORECAST
   TO BE SLOW/LIMITED.  PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH
   DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT YIELDING PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE COOL SIDE
   OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO HINDER MORE SUBSTANTIAL NWD ADVANCE OF THE
   BOUDNARY.  STILL...WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SUBSTANTIAL
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL CAN BE
   EXPECTED INVOF THE FRONT...WHILE LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREAT WITH SUPERCELL STORMS N OF THE BOUNDARY.
   
   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 02/25/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   31318951 31148690 31178361 31178152 30428070 29688138
               29268295 29278494 29098848 28888944 29138982 31318951