MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0925 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E TX INTO SRN AR/LA/SWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 251525Z - 251630Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...HAIL POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN
   DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  WW WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   DISCUSSION...A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING EWD ACROSS NWRN
   TX ATTM...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION INVOF CDS
   /CHILDRESS TX/ AND THE SURFACE LOW NOW JUST N OF ABI /ABILENE TX/.
   
   S OF THE SURFACE LOW...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES SURGING EWD
   THROUGH E TX...WHILE THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS
   E TX TO THE VICINITY OF LCH /LAKE CHARLES LA/.
   
   WITH ONLY A SLIVER OF LOW-LEVEL GULF AIR INLAND ATTM -- OVER THE
   HOUSTON METRO AREA AND VICINITY...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
   FOCUSED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   RESIDE ATOP A SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER.  SCATTERED STORMS ARE
   ONGOING INVOF THIS AREA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS ALONG WITH ATTENDANT HAIL POTENTIAL.
   
   WITH TIME...AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER
   VALLEY...NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
   ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT.  WITH TIME...EXPECT THE NOW-STABLE LOWER
   TROPOSPHERE OVER LA TO BE REPLACED BY A FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER -- AND GIVEN VEERING/STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THE
   REGION...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
   POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED SEVERE WEATHER IN ADDITION TO THE
   ONGOING HAIL THREAT.  ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL --
   PARTICULARLY IF A LINE OF STORMS EVOLVES ALONG THE PACIFIC
   FRONT...ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY WITH PRE-FRONTAL
   SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION.
   
   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 02/25/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   LAT...LON   29249467 30269452 31569459 34209407 33989260 33399145
               31358960 28998988 28829122 29369292 29249467