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Mesoscale Discussion 219
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0807 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...NWRN INDIANA AND EXTREME SWRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 160107Z - 160200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR MAINLY A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING FROM NERN
   IL THROUGH NWRN IND AND EXTREME SWRN LOWER MI. UNLESS CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY
   BE NEEDED FOR THIS REGION SOMETIME BEFORE 02Z.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS CURRENTLY FROM NCNTRL THROUGH CNTRL IL REMAIN
   SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH NERN IL...NWRN
   IND AND SWRN LOWER MI FOSTERED BY ASCENT RESULTING FROM A
   STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ AND ATTENDANT PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   WITH TIME...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR SOME STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE...BUT
   WITH SOME EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STRUCTURES LIKELY TO PERSIST.
   MOREOVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND DECOUPLES AND MOST STORMS
   BEGIN TO CONCENTRATE NEAR AND NORTH OF A QUASISTATIONARY/WARM FRONT
   LOCATED OVER NRN IL AND NRN INDIANA...UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY ELEVATED. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL
   DECREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF TORNADO
   WATCH 44...BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...

   LAT...LON   40158802 42888840 41898619 40288680 40158802 

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Page last modified: March 16, 2016
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