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Mesoscale Discussion 220
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1058 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL THROUGH NWRN INDIANA AND EXTREME SWRN LOWER
   MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45...

   VALID 160358Z - 160530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND
   POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST NEXT COUPLE
   HOURS...PRIMARILY OVER NWRN INDIANA WITH A MORE MARGINAL THREAT
   REMAINING OVER NERN IL PRIOR TO 05Z.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE WITHIN CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NERN IL THROUGH NWRN
   INDIANA. A COUPLE OF STORMS STILL HAVE SOME SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...BUT UPDRAFTS ARE BASED SOMEWHERE NEAR 850 MB BASED ON
   CURRENT SFC TEMPERATURES AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STRONGER STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NWRN INDIANA WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE
   FAVORABLE INFLOW TRAJECTORIES FROM THE MOIST WARM SECTOR RESIDE.
   GIVEN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN INDIANA...THE IL
   PORTION OF THE WW CAN BE CANCELLED BY 05Z.

   ..DIAL.. 03/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41588712 41678625 40718617 40528713 40718745 41498754
               41588712 

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Page last modified: March 16, 2016
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