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Mesoscale Discussion 221
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...NRN WI...AND FAR WRN
   UPPER MI

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 161042Z - 161645Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH 17Z.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 1015Z...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
   UPPER LOW OVER ERN WI...MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
   REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
   ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN CANADA SEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG UPPER
   DIVERGENCE OCCURRING OVER THE MCD AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THROUGH THE MORNING. RECENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW A
   BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NERN MN INTO
   NRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. A
   TRANSITION TO HEAVY WET SNOW HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MN ARROWHEAD. WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO THE W OF A 988 MB SFC LOW ALSO OVER
   ERN WI...PRECIPITATION ACROSS NRN WI AND FAR WRN UPPER MI WILL
   TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS EVEN AS SFC
   TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. RAP FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD SHOW A SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILE EXTENDING WELL ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH
   COMBINED WITH THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SUPPORT HEAVY WET
   SNOWFALL. RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH 17Z.

   ..GLEASON.. 03/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

   LAT...LON   46769347 47739364 48329334 48599264 48349160 48279063
               48048931 47509015 47098987 46828945 46068966 45689035
               45739208 46189298 46769347 

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Page last modified: March 16, 2016
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