Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 221
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 221 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0616 PM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL VALLEY OF CA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072316Z - 080115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL/ISOLATED HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR CNTRL CA. DUE TO THE
   ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA IN A POST-FRONTAL
   ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A
   COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC. LATEST
   RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MUCAPE OF 200-400 J/KG IS PRESENT AS SFC
   TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH
   DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
   ONLY 20-30 KT PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION...STORM ORGANIZATION HAS
   BEEN HAMPERED BY THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...AND GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE
   HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED.

   VWPS FROM AREA RADARS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
   MODEST...20 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER...BRIEF/WEAK CIRCULATIONS WITH SOME
   OF THE MORE ROBUST CORES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
   HOURS...WITH MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS NEAR SACRAMENTO
   AROUND 2120Z. AS SFC TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS...THE MEAGER INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CNTRL
   CA SHOULD DISSIPATE...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE
   MARGINAL/ISOLATED HAIL THREAT BY 01Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

   ..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...

   LAT...LON   36491930 36091976 36272029 39532253 39882265 40042234
               39702149 39172099 37842005 36491930 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 08, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities