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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0949 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WY...WRN SD
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 100249Z - 100645Z
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...ALREADY NOTED OVER MUCH OF WY...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD INTO WRN SD. RATES NEAR 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR WILL BE LIKELY...WITH 3 INCH AN HOUR POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH WILL FURTHER REDUCE
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SNOW.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS A BAROCLINIC LEAF FROM SERN UT NEWD INTO
SWRN ND WHERE STRONG 850 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS ONGOING AHEAD OF
A COLD UPPER TROUGH. MUCH OF WYOMING REMAINS UNDER FAVORABLE
ANTICYCLONIC JET DYNAMICS AS A 65 KT JET MAXIMA...NOTED ON PROFILER
DATA...ACCELERATES NEWD. 00Z SOUNDINGS AND MODEL FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS INDICATE AN ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FAVORABLE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL...WITH NEARLY SATURATED COLUMNS AND A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER
FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 650 MB. PROFILES WILL
REMAIN SATURATED AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES...AND GREATER MOISTURE
TO THE S IS DRAWN NWD IN SLY/SWLY 700 MB FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MAXIMIZED OVER CNTRL WY NEWD INTO NWRN SD...GRADUALLY
SPREADING ENEWD OVERNIGHT. IN WY...SWLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN FAVORABLY ORIENTED SLOPES...WHILE IN SD THE
BLACK HILLS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER RATES AS WELL.
..HURLBUT.. 03/10/2009
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 41900530 41360793 41420954 42300985 43100935 43740768
45190464 45780308 45670147 44660132 42650396 41900530
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