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Mesoscale Discussion 223
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0223
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0557 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL-NE TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171057Z - 171330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NCNTRL AND NE TX EARLY THIS MORNING. WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDELY SPACED CLUSTER OF
   THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS NCNTRL TX...LOCATED ALONG THE NRN EDGE
   OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN A REGION OF WARM ADVECTION. THE STORMS
   ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY. THE AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SHARP INVERSION IN
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES LOCATED ABOVE 750 MB. IN
   ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO CELL ROTATION. THE SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT
   REMAIN ELEVATED. DESPITE THE INVERSION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME
   OF THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32459554 32239641 32369764 32659814 33379817 33829782
               33849611 33389541 32459554 

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Page last modified: March 17, 2016
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