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Mesoscale Discussion 223
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0223
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0710 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291210Z - 291415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
   STORMS SPREAD EWD OUT OF THE ERN GULF.  THOUGH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   GENERALLY LIMITED/LOW-END INITIALLY...WW ISSUANCE COULD BECOME A
   CONSIDERATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES CROSSING
   THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH TIME...THROUGH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
   LYING ACROSS THIS AREA PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.  THOUGH INLAND
   INSTABILITY IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS WITHIN THE OFFSHORE
   MAXIMUM...COMMENCEMENT OF WEAK HEATING OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST /MID
   TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ACROSS THE
   PENINSULA SHOULD SUPPORT A MINOR INCREASE IN CAPE.  THIS -- COMBINED
   WITH VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS -- SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY MAINTAIN
   INTENSITY AS THEY BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

   ..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29328328 29778172 29568116 29118060 28308118 27408254
               27578289 28078303 28738276 29328328 

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Page last modified: March 29, 2014
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