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Mesoscale Discussion 225
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0937 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NERN TX...SERN OK...SWRN AR...NWRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171437Z - 171600Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR HAIL PROBABLY WILL PERSIST WITH INCREASING
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID DAY.  POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF
   SEVERE HAIL REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE WATCHES.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NOW ONGOING APPEARS LARGELY
   FOCUSED WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION
   WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ACTIVITY MAY BE OCCURRING AS MUCH IN
   RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER RUNNING APPARENT STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL CAPPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT EVIDENT IN
   700 MB ANALYSES.  MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WEAK...OR AT
   LEAST UNCERTAIN...AND THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET. 

   LITTLE CHANGE APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON /17-19Z/. 
   GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   ROUGHLY ALONG THE 700 MB THERMAL GRADIENT...EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...INTO PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.  AT THE SAME TIME...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR THE RED RIVER...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
   TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  

   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY ROOTED ABOVE A SHALLOW
   STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
   SURFACE FRONT.  BUT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING
   TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF
   STRONG CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT WESTERLY
   500 MB FLOW.  THIS ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO THE
   OCCASIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
   HAIL.

   ..KERR/HART.. 03/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33619772 34179644 34299400 33599254 32619060 31539121
               31999433 32049625 32679779 33619772 

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Page last modified: March 17, 2016
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