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Mesoscale Discussion 225
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SC...S-CNTRL NC...FAR ERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291730Z - 292000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARDS LATE
   AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED DISCRETE TSTMS LIKELY TO FORM ALONG A
   SURFACE TROUGH. INTENSITY/COVERAGE MAY REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT
   A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1006 MB CYCLONE NEAR TRI
   IN NERN TN WITH A TROUGH ARCING SWD THROUGH CNTRL GA AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT IN ERN AL. ROBUST INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
   SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT...WHILE CU HAVE
   GRADUALLY DEVELOPED ALONG IT. CONTINUED HEATING OF SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 70S INTO THE LOWER 80S WILL SUPPORT WEAK
   BUOYANCY AMIDST UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. ALTHOUGH
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR...STRENGTHENING
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THROUGH INCREASED MID-LEVEL DCVA SHOULD HELP
   FOSTER DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BY PEAK
   HEATING AS IT SHIFTS NEWD. GENERALLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
   RESULT IN RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES.
   NEVERTHELESS...SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 03/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35588046 35467969 35197938 33677947 32018123 31968173
               32078201 33148191 34638211 35008183 35408121 35588046 

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Page last modified: March 29, 2014
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