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Mesoscale Discussion 225
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0617 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KS / W-CNTRL AND CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081117Z - 081245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY MOVE DOWNSTREAM
   ACROSS W-CNTRL INTO CNTRL MO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE SHORT TERM AS TO WHETHER
   A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM
   SERN KS NEWD THROUGH CNTRL MO.  AREA WSR-88DS VAD SHOW A VEERING OF
   35- TO 40-KT H85 FLOW ACROSS N-CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS EARLY THIS
   MORNING.  RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 30-45 MIN HAS SHOWN A FEW
   ROBUST STORMS DEVELOP OVER FAR ERN KS...INCLUDING A PAIR OF ELEVATED
   SUPERCELLS TO THE N OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
   LARGELY FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT ENABLING PARCELS REACHING THE
   LFC.  

   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 DEG C/KM AND SUFFICIENTLY
   STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT
   ROTATION WITH STORMS.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
   WITH THE STORMS DUE TO THEIR EFFECTIVE INFLOW BASES ROOTED ABOVE A
   STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.  GIVEN THE FAVORED SUPERCELL MODE AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...SWATHS OF LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
   THE STRONGER STORMS AS THE STORMS MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO W-CNTRL AND
   CNTRL MO DURING THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38779499 39289344 39389227 38849149 38099167 37639299
               37529494 38779499 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2015
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