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Mesoscale Discussion 226
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL / CNTRL INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081241Z - 081345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.  A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY
   FRONTAL ZONE  --MODULATED BY AN ONGOING STORM CLUSTER-- ACROSS CNTRL
   IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL INDIANA AND INTO W-CNTRL OH.  A CLUSTER OF
   STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN IL HAS MOVED INTO CNTRL
   INDIANA ALONG THE FRONT.  A WELL-ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS LIKELY
   AIDING IN STORM SUSTENANCE OVER CNTRL IND AS IT PROGRESSES
   DOWNSTREAM ACROSS E-CNTRL AND SERN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE
   COLD POOL ARCS WWD FROM NEAR HUF INTO CNTRL IL WHERE ADDITIONAL
   STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE MCS.  

   WHILE STORM VIGOR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN EXTENSION OF THE PLAINS
   LAPSE RATE PLUME /REFERENCE 12Z ILX AND ILN RAOBS/...A RELATIVELY
   COOL BOUNDARY LAYER PER SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY
   LIMIT THE TRANSITION TO A SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT IN THE NEAR
   TERM.  NONETHELESS...ADEQUATE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AND
   MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW OF
   THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  GIVEN THE ISOLD COVERAGE AND MARGINAL MAGNITUDE
   OF THE THREAT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...ILX...

   LAT...LON   39498851 39878635 40228611 39978492 39228509 38868595
               39118817 39498851 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2015
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