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Mesoscale Discussion 226
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171614Z - 171815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SPORADIC
   HAIL AND SURFACE GUSTS THAT APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS
   THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR
   NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA
   APPEARS SUPPORTED BY A DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
   COUPLED SPEED MAXIMA WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION MAY HAVE AIDED INITIATION...BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF
   THIS SUPPORT REMAINS UNCLEAR.  

   GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
   DEVELOP ACROSS AND EAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA...THROUGH MUCH OF
   NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z.  THIS IS SOUTH OF A
   STALLING OR SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
   GEORGIA/ALABAMA...WITH THE AIR MASS BECOMING WEAK TO MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE EITHER SIDE OF THE ELONGATING CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD
   POOL.  WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER
   MODEST IN STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH 35-40+ KT
   WESTERLY 500 FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND
   INTENSIFICATION OF STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
   SOME RISK FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND SURFACE GUSTS.

   ..KERR/HART.. 03/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30688824 30978551 31168184 30518119 29448155 28888317
               28658541 29738867 30688824 

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Page last modified: March 17, 2016
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