Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 227
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 227 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0227
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL  LA...SRN MS AND ADJACENT SRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 171758Z - 171930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
   APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE
   INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS GENERALLY WEAK...AND FORCING FOR
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR.  HOWEVER...A MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE /CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J PER KG/
   ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF
   LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.  MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ACROSS THIS REGION
   APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH INSOLATION...AND SOME INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
   INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.  

   IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
   INCREASE/INTENSIFY WHILE DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH HAS
   BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT MORE SUBSTANTIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF CONVECTION NOW ROOTED ABOVE COOL
   SURFACE-BASED AIR ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. 
   THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE SUPPORTED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION...AND PERHAPS SUBTLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...WITH THE
   TENDENCY FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED WITHIN THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  IF/WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT PROBABLY WOULD BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND SURFACE
   GUSTS...AIDED BY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH 40-50+ KT WESTERLY
   500 MB FLOW.

   ..KERR/HART.. 03/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32129355 32219163 32369025 32028890 31778823 31138844
               30839110 30459312 31369381 32129355 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 17, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities