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Mesoscale Discussion 228
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0933 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MO...S-CNTRL IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31...

   VALID 081433Z - 081530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
   SEMI-DISCRETE UPDRAFTS PRIMARILY ALONG THE SRN/SWRN FLANKS OF A TSTM
   CLUSTER CENTERED FROM S-CNTRL IA TO CNTRL MO.

   DISCUSSION...PRIMARY SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF HAIL
   WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION BEING FED BY AN EML PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY
   700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM PER 12Z SGF/TOP RAOBS. WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY APPEARING TO BE FORCED BY A SWLY LLJ THAT IS EXPECTED
   TO DIMINISH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THE MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
   IS UNCERTAIN. CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN POOR
   WITH RESOLVING THIS ACTIVITY. BUT LATEST HRRR RUN HAS IMPROVED ON
   HANDLING ONGOING TSTMS AND SUGGESTS THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY WILL
   REMAIN ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER CLUSTER GIVEN INFLUX
   OF POTENTIALLY LARGE BUOYANCY WITH MUCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40879285 40099204 39469172 38799149 38329116 37909092
               37419099 37269158 37209274 37489373 38929394 41119464
               41319402 40879285 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2015
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