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Mesoscale Discussion 229
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0501 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...SWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 172201Z - 172330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SRN AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE.

   DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   APPEARS MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE
   INTO SWRN GA.  NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS THIS
   REGION AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS THAT IS PROGRESSING ACROSS MS. 
   LATEST MRMS DATA SUGGESTS HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IS NOTED IN THE MOST
   ROBUST UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER WEAKER LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
   THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT ONGOING
   ACTIVITY MAY NOT WARRANT WW ACROSS THIS REGION.

   ..DARROW/GOSS.. 03/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31858766 31888384 30928412 30328788 31858766 

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