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Mesoscale Discussion 231
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0231
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
   TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 172322Z - 180145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL EXISTS OVER MUCH OF SRN
   AND ERN TX...BUT PREDICTABILITY REGARDING ADDITIONAL STORM COVERAGE
   IS LOW.

   DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT...AUGMENTED BY SWWD-SURGING
   OUTFLOW...CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM SRN MS/LA TO JUST N OF THE HOUSTON
   AREA...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY INTO CNTRL TX. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
   AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS CNTRL AND
   INTO ERN TX S OF THE FRONT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AMPLE
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS
   DESPITE THE DEEP/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. A WLY/ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL
   PERSIST THIS EVENING ALOFT...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WARM
   ADVECTION/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT VIA 15-20 KT SLY 850 MB FLOW. IT IS
   UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAPPING THIS
   EVENING...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL STORMS
   WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
   SERN TX...AND ALSO WITH ANY STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN W
   OF THE RIO GRANDE. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. IF IT BECOMES
   APPARENT THAT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL FORM...A WATCH
   COULD BE REQUIRED BUT UNTIL THAT TIME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED CLOSELY.

   ..JEWELL/GOSS.. 03/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28659708 28000008 28670059 29170114 29680039 30309801
               30979644 31259581 30989445 30569412 29519499 28659708 

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Page last modified: March 18, 2016
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