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Mesoscale Discussion 233
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0604 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OK AND FAR NORTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181104Z - 181330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND
   12Z IN SOUTHWEST OK AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST TX WITH COVERAGE
   EXPANDING AS STORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN VICINITY
   OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX THIS MORNING. 
   HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME OF THE HAIL
   EXCEEDING 1 INCH DIAMETER.  THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS FORECAST TO
   REMAIN LIMITED...PRECLUDING A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING
   THE OVERNIGHT...GIVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM CENTRAL
   INTO NORTHWEST TX AND A 30-40-KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM
   CENTRAL AND WEST TX INTO THE RED RIVER AREA OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN
   OK.  MEANWHILE...00Z SOUNDINGS DETECTED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /7-8 C PER KM/...AND
   COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN IS RESULTING IN MUCAPE OF
   1000-2000 J/KG.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUED TO SHOW WARM ADVECTION
   ALONG AND WITHIN THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.  THIS WAA REGIME AND
   WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS WILL PROVIDE FURTHER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AS
   A COLD FRONT ADVANCES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN OK AND
   NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN TX.  AS UVVS BECOME MAXIMIZED IN SOUTHWEST
   OK/NORTHWEST TX BETWEEN 11-12Z...ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
   EXPECTED.  THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...AND 30-40 KT OF CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR PER STRENGTHENING
   WESTERLY MIDLEVEL WINDS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL GROWTH WITH
   SOME EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

   MOST CAMS SUGGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND/OR
   SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO ADJACENT NORTH TX BETWEEN 11-13Z WITH ISOLATED
   TO SCATTERED COVERAGE.  EARLY STAGES OF THIS SCENARIO APPEAR TO BE
   UNDERWAY AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN FAR
   SOUTHERN OK FROM MURRAY AND STEPHENS COUNTIES TO TILLMAN
   COUNTY...AND INITIAL INDICATIONS OF REFLECTIVITY IN SOUTHERN OK AND
   JUST WEST OF CHILDRESS TX.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 03/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33209711 33349837 33569935 33729999 33830025 34270032
               34719983 34899874 35019801 35029726 34839614 34519567
               34079547 33639549 33289569 33189649 33209711 

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Page last modified: March 18, 2016
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