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Mesoscale Discussion 233
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL SD AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN ND TO
   NORTHWEST MN

   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

   VALID 311708Z - 312245Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR AND AT LEAST
   NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
   ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST
   MN.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH
   CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS/WEST-CENTRAL NEB AS OF MIDDAY...WITH A
   DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /AROUND 992 MB/ LOCATED ALONG THE MO RIVER
   VALLEY NEAR THE YANKTON/SIOUX FALLS VICINITIES AS OF 17Z. SNOW IS
   ALREADY ONGOING ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL SD INTO
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN ND...AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS
   PROBABLE AS THE PARENT CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE
   NORTHEASTWARD/MODESTLY DEEPEN. FURTHERMORE...STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY
   WINDS /45+ KT/ WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
   NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THOUGH
   THE AFTERNOON.

   INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER JET EXIT REGION/WARM ADVECTION ASIDE...THE
   RELATIVE COLLOCATION OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP LAPSE
   RATES/WEAK STATIC STABILITY AND EVEN SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ARE
   INFLUENCING THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS
   HIGHLY-ORGANIZED/CONTRACTING SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED INTENSE
   SNOW BANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SNOW MAY
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME LIGHTNING RECENTLY /1645Z/ NOTED
   BETWEEN JAMESTOWN AND FARGO IN SOUTHEAST ND. SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF
   1 IN/HR AND AT LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
   THE REGION...WITH SNOW RATES APPROACHING 2 IN/HR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   SOME OF THE MOST INTENSE/CONVECTIVE BANDS INTO EARLY EVENING.

   ..GUYER.. 03/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48689439 47639581 45829931 45230122 46520070 48239859
               48989661 48689439 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2014
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