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Mesoscale Discussion 233
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TN...WRN/CNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081855Z - 082100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE AND TRENDS
   ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN TSTM
   ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL KY. WHILE OVERALL FORCING IS A BIT
   NEBULOUS...FORCING MECHANISM FOR THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAK
   WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
   HOSTILE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH RECENT SURFACE OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THE AREA IS UNCAPPED. AS A RESULT...THE ACTIVITY
   WHICH IS LIKELY INITIATING IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
   BECOME SURFACE-BASED...TAPPING INTO SBCAPE AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG.
   WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BULK SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE
   OF STRONG MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE CURRENTLY
   PRECLUDES HIGH WATCH PROBABILITIES BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
   BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 04/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36818425 36478451 36228500 36198644 36298781 36668891
               37008885 37268844 37898665 38008644 38168554 38188525
               38198470 38018404 37748389 37448400 36818425 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2015
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