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Mesoscale Discussion 234
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312005Z - 312200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN. A FUNNEL/BRIEF
   TORNADO RISK MAY BE POSSIBLE ASIDE FROM MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE IS CENTERED ACROSS
   THE MO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A 990 MB SURFACE LOW
   LOCATED NEAR/NORTHEAST OF SIOUX FALLS SD AS OF 20Z. SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO/PERSISTED IN THE MIDDLE/SOME UPPER 40S F
   ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN NEAR AND EAST-NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE TRIPLE
   POINT. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SUFFICIENT
   /ALBEIT MEAGER/ CAPE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE OF A FEW STRONGER LOW-TOPPED TSTMS. WHILE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL SRH ARE LIMITED IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
   LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS...PLENTIFUL AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY AND STEEP
   LAPSE RATES/MODEST LOW-LEVEL CAPE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
   FUNNELS/POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO AS WELL AS MAINLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL
   THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 03/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44069644 44799649 45379579 44829459 44229483 43819546
               44069644 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2014
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