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Mesoscale Discussion 236
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN
   LOUISIANA ...AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 181816Z - 181915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA WITHIN A
   BAND OF WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION ATOP A WEAKLY-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ROOTED WITHIN THE
   850-700MB LAYER...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE RESULTING IN A
   RESERVOIR OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1500
   JOULES-PER-KILOGRAM. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
   THUNDERSTORMS...LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED WIND GUST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   TO THE NORTHWEST...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM/S WITH A HISTORY OF
   PRODUCING SPORADIC LARGE HAIL REPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
   GIVEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE
   STORMS...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH WILL BECOME NECESSARY.

   ..MARSH/WEISS.. 03/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32469516 33509509 33839469 34049327 33689110 32938981
               32388977 32039029 31909150 31749300 31999430 32469516 

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Page last modified: March 18, 2016
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