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Mesoscale Discussion 236
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO...CNTRL/SRN IL....CNTRL/SRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34...

   VALID 081943Z - 082115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TSTM CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAYBE A
   TORNADO.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...ONE JUST SW OF ST.
   LOUIS AND THE OTHER OVER E-CNTRL IL. BOTH OF THESE CLUSTERS EXIST
   WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS BENEATH MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.5 DEG C PER KM ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE OVER
   2500 J PER KG. BOTH OF THESE CLUSTERS APPEAR TO BE ON OR VERY CLOSE
   TO THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THIS MORNINGS MCS. AS A
   RESULT...DESPITE RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THERE IS LIKELY AT
   LEAST SOME TORNADO RISK IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL
   /RECENT REPORT OF HAIL GREATER THAN 4 INCHES IN FRANKLIN CO MO/ AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..MOSIER.. 04/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   SGF...

   LAT...LON   39749160 40369049 40438782 40078485 37878652 37819197
               39749160 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2015
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