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Mesoscale Discussion 237
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181857Z - 182100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.  STRONGEST
   ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.  A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS THE NEXT HOUR
   OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW UP THE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...AND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY...AS WELL AS
   HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...IS MAINTAINING HIGH
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT.  AND INSOLATION BENEATH WARM/CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED
   LAYER AIR IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
   POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  

   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED OFF THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE
   RIVER /ABOUT 75 MI WSW OF DEL RIO/...BUT INHIBITION OTHERWISE
   REMAINS STRONG FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THE
   GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE OF THE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW...IT MAY
   TAKE SOME TIME FOR CONVECTION WEST OF THE RIVER TO PROPAGATE OFF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN AND CROSS THE RIVER INTO SOUTH TEXAS.  GUIDANCE IS
   SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE
   HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...AMONG OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...HAS BEEN
   SUGGESTIVE THAT THE STORM INITIATION COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.

   IT APPEARS AT LEAST POSSIBLE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWARD
   PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVES EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY COULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF INHIBITION TO ALLOW STORMS TO
   DEVELOP.  IF THIS OCCURS...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
   MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
   HAIL...AND AT LEAST LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..KERR/WEISS.. 03/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29570222 30220226 30880179 30439977 30539894 29889825
               29249888 28760004 28109986 27099959 27099959 27620159
               29570222 

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Page last modified: March 18, 2016
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